Current Situation Of Cultivated Land Resources And Food Security In Anhui Province

Provisions is necessities for us all to live, not only for its living materials but productivity materials. So provision productivity has an undescribed social and political meaning. Changes of cultivated land will be sure to engender profound influence upon provisions safety of China. Rarity of cropland resource has become a bottle neck which restricts provisions security. As one of large provinces in agriculture, Anhui is the main provision productive area and abundance of provisions except for occasional adverse years. Therefore, Anhui always plays an important role in the stabilization of provision security in our country. Since the reform and opening for economy, cultivated land sharply shrunk with increasingly economic development and increase of population in Ahui province over the past decade. With acceleration of industrialization and process of urbanization, the trend of non-agricultural land use of cultivated land is difficult to change. Meanwhile, the quality of cropland has reduced because of soil erosion, discharge of industrial wastes, much application of pesticide and fertilizer and irrational irrigation. Briefly, all mentioned above will affect the provisions productivity and security. In this paper, based on GIS, database of cultivated land resource and provisions productivity in 1980 and 2002 were established. Moreover, spatial database of relief, landlook, soil, light, thermal, precipitation etc factors related to productivity, and database of many-year social-economy were established too. The functions of GIS are elaborated, such as managing spatial and attribute data, spatial analys and outputting ultimate maps. Through mathematics model, probability statistics and quantitative analysis, the paper analyzed the features for changes of cropland, driving factors, disparities in different regions and its reasons. Also, the main factors affected provisions productivity of Anhui were argued by means of grey theory, based on that, forecasting the trend of supplement and demand for provisions with grey model. Furthermore, bringing up the countermeasures for sustainable application of cropland so as to ensure provisions security. Researches show that cultivated land is the basic of provisions productivity. Keeping amount of cultivated land is the premises to guarantee provisions productivity. In the whole process of provisions productivity of Anhui province, the improvement of grain yield takes a big contribution to increase of overall productivity. After reform and opening, Anhui province's area of cropland has decreased year after year, especially in fast developing district. The grain yield has enhanced in a large scale, however, in recent year begun to hover up and down. Moreover, under relief, soil and light, thermal, precipitation etc natural conditions, grain yield differentiated among regions, what's more, the area of middle or low yield farmland makes up quite a few proportions. Due to the trend for cropland resources decrease, grain yield increase and population growth, Anhui could meet people's demands for provisions with level of 450kg per people for warm-and-full. Nevertheless there would be a gap to reach the goal of 485kg per people for well-to-do, lest to the level of richness with 575kg per people. With the perfect of living condition, to reach the level of richness is a certain direction, it makes problem of provisions serious to be regarded to. Therefore, for provisions security in the future, protect of cropland should be stressed, non-agro land use be controlled strictly as well as cropland be exploited and reclaimed, population growth should be controlled ets for purpose of alleviation in agriculture, to reclaim the middle and low yield farmland and depend on scien-tech raise provisions productivity level and heighten the impetus of agriculture development.