Study On Risks And Control In Retail Services Of Commercial Banks In China

On the study of the risks and risk control problem existing in the retail services of the commercial banks in China, this thesis puts forward some countermeasures. First, taking the financial risk control theory and the commercial banks' risk control theory as the theory basis, this thesis analyzes the demands, targets and principles of risk management of commercial banks' retail services in China and summarizes the contents of the management. Then, starting with the contents, this thesis deduces that the risk management includes two hierarchies: risk management for single retail service and risk management for single retail products. As for the former, the thesis puts forward a so-called "open, two circulation, dynamic feedback" system which includes the risk management before, during and after the events. As for the management system, the author first analyzes the representation, reasons, influence and the source of the risk control problem. And then studies the different contents of each phase according to their different characteristics. The before-event risk management mainly studies the identification, evaluation and handling of the three main risks (credit risk, market risk and operating risk), as well as the management model for risk decision-making; the during-event one mainly studies the prewarning aspect of the risk; while the after-event one consists of the duty investigation, recourse and claim settlement, charging to one's account and cancellation after verification. As for the methods of evaluating the exact risks, the author has designed the quantification models for credit and operating risks basing on Bayesian Network, as well as the prewarning quantification models for credit and operating risks basing on dynamic Bayesian Network. All the models are according to China's practical situation and on the basis of comparison among the advanced risk management concepts in the world. This thesis puts the VaR model, expertise and D-S information-mixing technique together to form the prewarning models for market risk. On the handling of the risk-evaluating index and risk-pre warn ing index, the author proposes some methods of using the factorial analytical method to reduce the dimension of the index, combining the expertise and D-S information-mixing technique to form the unified quantification index. On the risk management for single retail products, the author proposes the method of using the data-finding technique to get the whole risk distribution and innovative knowledge of single retail products. In order to make the risk management for retail services work effectively, the author also puts forwards a project of cultivating the management culture for retail...