Changzhou Area Power Supply And Demand Analysis And Countermeasures

Via an investigation towards the power demand and supply status in Changzhou city in 2004, the article diagnoses the key factors contributing to the balance of power demand and supply as well as the severe phenomenon of "power shortage". On the basis of qualitative analysis and grey forecas, the essay made a prediction towards the power supply and demand status in Changzhou in the year 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. The outcome indicates that there is a general balance on the annual power consumption value in the year 2005, in the summer peak there will be approximately 490,000kw power supply shortfall. In the year 2006, the annual power volume will be in a basic balance with a slight surplus, in the summer peak there is estimated to be about 90,000kw power supply shortfall. In the year 2007, the annual power supply volume will be in a basic balance with a little surplus, the situation remains the same in the summer peak. On the basis of requirement forecasting and analytic hierarchy, the essay makes a economical comparison among the different policies of Changzhou's power construction and thereby draws the following conclusion: the weight of the power source construction updating scheme is 0.3418, the corresponding figure for the power network construction renewal project is 0.4899 and for the supply and demand construction innovation, 0.1683, the funds for the power construction and innovation in Changzhou is supposed to be redistributed and utilized according to the above-said analytic hierarchy. That will be of great significance and be conducive to the power construction planning project. At the end of the essay, the writer combines the current situation of the market economy and power system reform, puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions in alleviating the intense situation of the power supply so as to insure the robust, continual and stable development of the power industry.