Study On Predicting The Quantity Of Construction Land Demand In Chengdu City

Based on socioeconomic statistic material and the data of construction land of Chengdu city form 1988 to 2002, this research adopted linear function analysis , factorization analysis etc statistics method to analyze the basic trend on the quantity change of construction land in Chengdu city. Though counting the corresponding coefficient of the factor which affect the demand of construction land, established the predicted multiple-linear regression model of demand quantity on construction land. At the same time, it analyzed the value of the coefficient of the model. At last, we choused index yield function model and grey system mode to verify the predicted result. The results showed that:The essential factor which affected the demand of construction land were GDP, fixed assets investment, urbanization level, population and the Engle coefficient. Among the factors, GDP, fixed assets investment, urbanization level and population has a positive relation with the demand of construction land, but the Engle's coefficient has a negative nonlinear relation with the demand of contribution land. The biggest positive contributing probability of factors was urbanization level, its contributing probability was 0.917; and the smallest was GDP, its contributing probability was just 0.0051. The order of contributing probability of factors to contribution land demand was: urbanization level(0.917)>population(0.066)>fixed assets investment (0.0113) >GDP (0.0051) .Multiple-linear regression model unveiled the coupling relation and its connected-interacted mechanism between the changes on the demand of contribution land in Chengdu with dominant impacting factors. And it could effectively simulate thechanges on the demand of contribution land under the integrative influence of various socioeconomic factors. This multiple-linear model had strong expansibility and dynamics.In the future seventeen years, the rules that the developing rate of economic influenced on the change of construction land demand was followed: the construction land would have an increase of 3.4 hectare as per GDP's increase of a hundred million Yuan. When the fixed assets investment's increased a hundred million Yuan the construction land would increase 7.533. And as long as the urbanization level's had increased of one percentage and population's had increased of a ten thousand the construction land would separately increase 61.133 and 44 hectare. In 2020, the predicted quantity of construction land demand in Chengdu city was 31.295 ten thousand hectare. The analysis of comparison expressed that this predicted value was belong to he testing model's predicted value which is form 29.633 ten thousand hectare to 32.614 ten thousand hectare, and it was just inferior the average value (31.124 ten thousand) 0.171 ten thousand hectare. These showed that the Multiple-linear regression model had high accuracy and precision. And the predicted value could be regarded as the reference of Chengdu's construction land demand in 2020.