Methods Of Predicting Land Demand For Construction Use

Implement the Central Party Committee, the ones that put forward in the State Council " builds the well-to-do society in an all-round way, establish and implement the scientific development view, structure the harmonious society " and put forward in the provincial government and Provincial Party committee of Fujian " Make great efforts to build an opening to the outside world, Developing in harmony and overall prosperous economic zone of west bank in the straits" under the new situation of strategic objective, and Under the background of fact that the central authorities propose that strengthening the land utilizes macro adjustments and controls and new round of overalls plan of utilization of land in the whole country to be revised and arranged shortly , there are some new things and new problems demand to study and solve urgently in sustainable utilization of land resource management, the method of construction land demand prediction is one of them. Based on reality of Fujian Province, according to socio-economic development statistical data and space-time change data that land utilize since the 1995 such as province, rely mainly on quantitative method , the method is a research principle complemented to determine the nature, on the foundation of analysing the land that I saved utilizes current situation, dynamic change of construction land and construction land to increase driving force, to the total amount prediction method of all kinds of construction land, include: Time sequence comes back to predict the law of model, time sequence grey systematic theory model law, Markov chain predict model law, population forecast model law,etc. the study analyses and compares the mathematics basic principle of model,evaluates proper utilization of various kinds of method on the prediction of land utilization. It can screen the time sequence grey systematic theory model law that it dispel by system " noise ",and supported by computer software can suitable forshort terirK mid-term n long-term prediction, and in order to improve predicting precision can revise many times for predicted incomplete difference. Relying mainly on this method, on the time yardstick of 2005-2020, it predicts the real example of the demand of the main construction land type to Fujian Province and nine setting up area cities , and carries on the precision to examine to the result,have made and satisfied with the result. Combines with analysis of ration predicting, this research connects and uses the result of increase driving force analysis of construction land, adopts social economic development qualitative analysis and half quantitative analysis to revise the result of the ration predicting properly.Direct against the questions of much more adopting simple qualitative analysis and ration predict method, less using the systematic model, technological means to comparatively lag behind, lacking theoretical foundation etc.in construction land demand prediction in first two plan of land utilization,the study combines grey systematic GM(1,1) mathematics analyse models which more uses in recent years and computer technology together to predict, improves predict scientific and technological advance of means of method,helps to deepen the cognition of methodology system of plan of land utilization. This study compares the demand prodict methods of several kinds of construction land and revises the result of demand prodict, reflecting the objectivity and practicability of prediction, and have certain theory innovation.The study systematic predicts and analyses the demand of the main construction land type to Fujian Province and nine setting up area cities, there is no precedent yet in the field of similar research,the predict results will have important directive significance and can offer the perspective basis for the arrangement of all kinds construction land rationally and the management of plan of Fujian Province and nine setting up area cities, this study can offer reference for the thing that the study of the trend changingof construction land and new round of overalls plan of utilization of land revises and arranges in our province.