Macroeconomic Factors And Property Crime In Chinese Migrant Workers

The fast development of China, together with its profound urbanization has been stimulating more and more migrant workers to come into cities. But the limitation of present cities and its poor ability to provide basic social security have been the topic concern for these people, which might lead to high crime rate. This article provides an empirical analysis for this problem. The empirical analysis indicates that changes in urbanization, distribution gap, education, income and deterrence have contributed to the rise of the crime rate in migrant workers.In theory, this article divides the crime commitment into three phases, which is combined with "the Todaro's migration theory"," the social tensions" and Becker's deterrence theory respectively; the empirical analysis contains variables of urbanization, distribution gap, education, income, expenditure on social security and severity of punishment respectively. The basic econometric approach is based on time series data, so I specify the linear approximations to the equations and estimate them by ordinary least squares.Compared with the current research on crime and migrant workers, some contributions of my paper may be mentioned. Firstly, I combine some theories into a whole to be the basic model for the special issue, many of which may relate to a particular aspect. The empirical analysis takes time, for there is no official statistics about the migrant workers.In this problem, I estimate it both by the local evidence and the total one; some independent variables, such as education and income, also be chosen according to the special status of migrant workers. What's more, an IV is used in the econometric analysis.The conclusion supports my theoretical analysis and the mentioned factors in each phase do have influence on crime rate and I also provide some advises for it.