| The problem of aging,is an important issue the world faced at present .It will be an important factor restricting the development of future economic and society. The problem of population aging research has been played more and more attention by scholars, especially after China entered the aging society. As the country with the largest total population and elderly population, China's aging process is concerned by the international community and academia increasingly. This article is set in China's aging, in Jilin Province as an example, using the data of Jilin Province and combination Wang Jinying's model of the population age structure of the consumption, analyzing of population aging on consumption. And it uses the final set of model predicting the future consumption level and the marginal propensity to consume of Jilin Province. This article is divided into five parts:The first chapter as the theoretical basis for this study mainly consists of two aspects. Firstly, it introduces that in the context of our aging, Jilin Province, deepening the degree of aging, will affect the consumption and the economic development. Secondly, it reviews and summarizes the domestic and foreign academic researches in aging. And for the aging and the economy, aging and consumption of research are focused on description especially.The second chapter gives the main basic assumptions, models and related data. In order to eliminate the impact of population age structure, this article introduces the standard consumers of assumptions to characterize the age structure of population. It gives two types of model: one is directly to introduce the consumption function model of the population age structure variables; another is to introduce the standard of consumers into variables to build the consumption model. In data processing, it converted the date of GDP, consumption and so on into 1990 constant prices. The third chapter analyzes and predicts the aging of Jilin Province, characteristics, and trends in the future. It mainly reflect the more serious aging of Jilin Province. One is the more rapid growth of elderly population and the other is the aging in advance of economic development. Both of the two became the challenges of the developments of Jilin Province.The fourth chapter is the focus of this study. It is mainly based on models and related data, simulating the consumption function which contains the aging of the population index, and then inspecting it one by one, to find the most suitable model of consumption. The model consumption effect is very significant; it proves that the age structure of the population is an important factor affecting the consumption. And the model results show that with the increase in GDP per capita, the level of consumption will be significantly increase, either. However, the increased consumption levels will decrease due to the population aging increased. This chapter also uses the model to predict the future per capita consumption level of Jilin Province and the marginal propensity consumption, it reaches the next level of per capita consumption in Jilin Province will have more growth, but the marginal propensity consumption is the first increased and then reduced, the prediction is ideal very much.The fifth chapter are conclusions. It mainly carries out and summarizes this study, discusses the differences with the other similar studies, and finally it points out some existing deficiencies in this article.With the deepening aging degree of Jilin Province, It's bad for consumer demand for Jilin Province as well as economic development. This can also be clearly seen from the model. However, from the final text to see the forecast results, such negative effects of aging may be eased or resolved because of the level of the rapid economic development of Jilin Province.
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