Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Residents' Consumption Based On Standard Consumer Model

Population aging is a social issue that is widely concerned by countries all over the world.As the country with the largest population in the world,China's l population aging problem has received much attention and the challenges it faces are even more severe.Since China entered the aging society,the size of the aging population has been increasing and developing rapidly.As of the end of 2018,the number of aging people above 65 reached165.68 million.Compared with 1999,the growth rate was as high as about 90%,and the growth was rapid.The proportion of the elderly population is as high as 11.9%,which has already exceeded the 7% stipulated by the United Nations,and the ageing of the population has continued to deepen.China has become the country with the largest number of aging populations in the world,and the problem of aging is even more serious.Since the reform and opening up,China 's economy has developed rapidly.The average annual growth rate of GDP has fluctuated around 10%.In 2010,China has successfully leapt to the second largest economy in the world.However,the quality of economic development and the level of per capita income are still somewhat different from those of developed countries.Consumption,as one of the "troikas" driving economic development,has also contributed to China's economic development,but in general it lacks momentum.China mainly relies on investment and exports to promote economic development,neglects the role of consumption,and the consumption rate continues to decline.After 2008,due to the impact of the financial crisis,investment has gradually decreased,consumption has begun to play a role,and the consumption rate of residents has gradually increased,but it is still not enough.As the main body of consumption,people play a vital role in consumption.Consumption varies greatly among different age groups.So what is the relationship between the elderly population and household consumption? How do the two affect each other? Based on the background of China's population aging,this paper uses the standard consumer model and gray correlation model to test it empirically from two aspects of consumption level and consumption structure.The full text is mainly divided into seven parts.The first part introduces the background and significance of this topic,and sorts out the relevant literature at home and abroad fromthe aspects of consumption level and consumption structure.It also explains the research content,research methods,and innovations of this article.The second part gives the concept of aging and the selection of indicators,analyzes the current situation of China's population aging,and summarizes the characteristics: China's population is ageing rapidly,is not compatible with the level of economic development,has the characteristics of "being old before getting rich",the elderly population is aging,and the development of urban and rural areas is uneven.The third part analyzes the current consumption level and consumption structure of China's residents from the national and urban and rural levels,and learns that there are some differences between urban and rural consumption.The fourth part theoretically analyzes the direct impact of population aging on the level of consumption of residents from the aspects of population income level,consumption propensity,social security system,and medical services,and analyzes the direct impact of aging on the consumption structure from the characteristics of the aging population and the transformation of consumption structure,And indirectly analyze the impact on consumption from three aspects: labor supply,labor productivity,and capital accumulation.The fifth part empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on household consumption from two aspects of consumption level and consumption structure.First,use a quantitative model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between aging and consumption levels.By directly introducing the population age structure and a standard consumer model to conduct an empirical test,it is concluded that aging of the population will inhibit the consumption level of residents.Residents' marginal consumption tendency is inversely related to the proportion of the elderly population.Secondly,using the relevant data from 1992 to 2018 to establish a gray correlation model,and comparing the urban and rural areas,it is concluded that there is a certain difference in the consumption structure of the urban and rural elderly population.The urban and rural elderly spend less on food and clothing than other age groups,and spend more on medical care,education,culture,entertainment,and living than other age groups.The sixth part is a summary of the conclusion of the full text study,and points out the shortcomings.The seventh part gives the appropriate countermeasures and suggestions based on the current situation and empirical test results of the elderly's consumption.