| Population aging has become the new normal of global population development,and its impact on economic development has been sustained.China has entered an aging society since 2000,and in recent years it has shown a trend of accelerating population aging,which has become the largest country in the world.At the same time,the consumption rate of residents in China has shown a general trend of monotonous decline since the 1980 s,but after entering 2000,with 2010 as the turning point,it has come out of the trend of first falling and then slightly rising,and the same period corresponds to the two stages of steady development and accelerated development of population aging after China entered the aging society in 2000.At present,the consumption has become the first driving force to stimulate China's economic growth,which is very important to promote the sustained ? steady and healthy development of China's economy.According to the traditional life cycle theory,the change of population age structure will have an important impact on residents' consumption.Under the background of population aging society,it is the core problem to study the mechanism of population aging on residents' consumption and to test the effect of population aging on residents' consumption empirically.With the theories of population sociology and consumption economics,the dissertation holds that the influence of population aging on residents' consumption mainly includes two aspects: the influence on residents' consumption rate and the influence of residents' consumption structure,and expounds the influence mechanism of population aging on residents' consumption from the macro and micro perspectives respectively.From the view of the influence on population aging on the consumption rate of residents,the macro-level population aging mainly affects the total social output and the proportion of national income distribution to form a inhibitory effect on the consumption rate of the total social residents.The micro-level population aging mainly through the income effect and savings effect on the elderly individuals and their household consumption tendency.From the view of the influence on population aging on the consumption structure of residents,the macro-level population aging mainly affects the consumption demand structure of households by forcing the adjustment of industrial structure and strengthening the supply-side reform of the elderly consumption market.Based on the empirical results of macro-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,the dissertation draws the following conclusions: firstly,the population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on the consumption rate of residents,the inhibition effect is different in urban and rural areas,and the inhibition effect will not be significant with the deepening of population aging in time and stages;secondly,the effect of rural population aging on the consumption rate of rural residents has a positive U non-linear relationship and income;Thirdly,the influence of population aging on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents is heterogeneous,and the population aging has nonlinear influence on the consumption structure of residents and income regulation effect.Based on the macro-empirical analysis and micro-data,the dissertation further discusses the influence of family population aging on family consumption including at least one elderly member over 60 years old,in order to better reveal the characteristics of elderly individuals and their household consumption from the micro level.The empirical results show that the aging of the household population has a promoting effect on the household consumption rate,and with the difference of the quantile of the household consumption rate,the degree of influence is different between urban and rural areas and sub regions.At the same time,the aging of the family population has a promoting effect on the proportion of household consumption expenditure on food,tobacco,wine,clothing,residence,daily necessities and services,and health care.And a restraining effect on the proportion of household transportation,communication,education,culture and entertainment consumption expenditure.Because the age structure of CHARLS data is too large,the aging degree of sample family population is on the high side,which accords with the hypothesis that the income level is low and the consumption tendency is high when the person is in the old age stage.Finally,this dissertation further puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote consumption and expand domestic demand under the background of aging population: firstly,to issue relevant policies to slow down the social process of population aging;secondly,to speed up the development of the elderly industry and optimize the supply of goods and services in the elderly consumer market;thirdly,to improve the social security system and enhance the ability and willingness of household consumption;fourthly,to improve the integration level of urban and rural consumer market and enhance the vitality of rural consumption. |
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