| In recent years,China's population structure has undergone rapid transformation,and the problem of population aging has become more and more serious.As the number of elderly people has expanded,the scale of consumption of the elderly has also increased rapidly.Growing consumption of the elderly brings new opportunities and challenges.On the one hand,huge consumption potential may play a role in solving the problem of insufficient consumption in China.On the other hand,the development of the aging industry is lagging behind,and there are still many problems.Promoting the development of the aging industry and effectively meeting the consumption needs of the elderly require continuous efforts.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze the current situation and development trend of the elderly population consumption.The article first summarizes the theory and methods used in the research.The following analysis consists of three parts.The first part is the current situation analysis and the estimation of the consumption coefficient.Analyze the current situation of population aging and consumption in China through population data and consumption data.Use CHIP 2002,2007,and 2013 household consumption data to establish regression models to calculate the consumption coefficient and analyze its changing trend.The results show that:(1)China's population is aging faster,and there are obvious regional differences and urban-rural differences.(2)The consumption coefficient calculated by the regression model shows a trend of first decline and then increase.Based on related research,the consumption coefficient is set to: 1990-2007 children: 0.6,elderly: 0.9-0.6;2008-2025 children: 0.6-0.8,elderly : 0.6 ~ 1.0.(3)Consumption of residents in China is insufficient,but the proportion of elderly population consumption in residents' consumption expenditure is increasing,and the elderly have obvious consumption habits and characteristics.The second part is the population forecast.Based on the cohort factor method,the population of China from 2019 to 2050 was predicted using PADIS-INT software.The results show that: The total population of China is expected to reach a peak of about 1.450 billion people by around 2028 and about 1.352 billion people by 2050.The proportion of people aged 65 and over will increase from 12.42%% in 2019 to 25.38% in 2050,with a size of about 343 million people.The third part is the forecast of the consumption level of the residents and the calculation of the consumption of the elderly.First,use grey correlation analysis to screen the influencing factors of residents' consumption level.Then use the genetic algorithm optimized gray BP neural network to predict the consumption level of residents from 2019 to 2025.Finally,based on the "standard consumer" concept,combined with the consumption coefficient calculated in the previous section and the results of population projections,the age consumption scale of 2019-2025 is calculated.The results show that:(1)The prediction accuracy of the grey GA-BP neural network for the residents' consumption level from 2013 to 2018 is 0.48%,which is higher than the 2.31% of the GM(1,1)model.(2)By 2025,the consumption level of residents is 38,673 yuan,the consumption level of the elderly is 40,090 yuan,and the scale of the elderly consumption is 86,185 billion yuan,accounting for 15.41% of the residents' consumption expenditure.The article concludes with conclusions and puts forward corresponding suggestions. |
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