Empirical Research On The Impact Factor Of Chinese Ordinary University's Enrolling Scale Since 1999

The major objective of this thesis is that in recently years higher education had rapidly entered the ranks of higher education, attracting people′s attention on enrolling scale of ordinary university. By constructing our empirical model of ordinary university′s enrolling scale, study and analysis factors of enrollment changes on the marginal contribution of enrollment in order to find a practical way to achieve synchronous growth of higher education resources′s growth, investment in higher education′s growth and funding higher education enrollment growth, to protect the healthy and orderly development of the enrollment.On the basic of briefly analyzing the existing status of ordinary university′s enrolling scale, author did some specific studies on the impact of restricting factors of the scale of higher education. First of all, from the perspective of supply and demand analysis of the expansion of college enrollment potential of Higher Education in China to analyze the reasons for strictly control the speed of admission. Then, through the analysis of factors′features of ordinary university′s enrollment, find the factors restraining effect on the number of admissions.In the part of empirical study of the article, by constructing the empirical model between ordinary university′s admission number and its influence factors to analyze the influence factors′marginal contribution rate on ordinary university′s enrolling scale, and using the point prediction method to confirm the reliability of the model. By empirical research found that college enrollment must be steady growth in gross domestic product circumstances, the government should increase expenditure on education as soon as possible so that expenditure on education of gross domestic product ratio implemental achieved 4%, and improve the university hardware conditions, add teachers, at the same time government should consider develop appropriate policies to increase rural household income, increase famers capacity to pay higher education tuition and fees.Finally, considering the 2015 development goals of higher education, the author proposed the development of our ordinary university′s enrolling scale to maintain 1.5 percent average appropricate scale, analyzed the feasibility of achieve synchronous growth of higher education resources′s growth and higher education scale expansion, the simultaneous growth of investment in higher education and the growth of ordinary university′s enrollment , put forward policy recommendations on our higher education enrollment′s smooth implementation.