The Research Of Population Scale In Small Town

To ascertain the population scale in small town is an important problem during the urbanization, and it is also one piece of the primary work in the general plan of small town. According to analyzing the current development situation of the small town and the problem of the population scale in it, the author point out that the unscientific and unreasonable phenomenon in small town planning has blocked the development process of the small towns. In order to solute the problem, the parper starts with clarifying the concepts of the towns to limit the research range of population scale of small towns, and proposes that population scale should be determined according to the superior plan, synthesizing the factors of area bearing ability and environment capacity and economical structure. Further more, the author studies and draws lessons from some mathematic models, such as the array law of time, return to the analytic approach, GM(1.1) grey model, Malthus' population growth model and etc. Through analyzing their characteristic and scope of application, the article makes up the deficiency of the commonly used population forecast method. This text gathers the structuring and putting forward the constructive suggestion of the mechanism to small towns population, and still analyses the relationship of the small town build resources and urban scale and population to set up the trends developing models. The thesis is still combines the investigation and the practiced project. In the Mige town general planning, the author analyses and predicts its population scale detailedly at the respect of politics and economic and mathematic model. This not only offers the scientific basis for the Mige town general planning and economical development, but also further reasonably and scientific probes into the method of predicting the population scale of small towns. During the communication and cooperation with the local government, the article builds up the practice character of the predicted method of urban population scale and the nature of scientific and implement of the population gathering mechanism.