Research On The Relationship Between Population Scale And Industrial Structure In Small Towns Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Small towns,as the top of the countryside,are the important bridges and links linking urban and rural areas.With the improvement of agricultural production efficiency,the transfer and placement of agricultural surplus labor force has become one of the population problems that need to be solved urgently in China.Due to the excessive expansion of large cities and frequent urban diseases,urban areas can not effectively accommodate the rural population.The gap between the urban and rural areas is too large and the contradiction is prominent,which leads to the rural areas can not effectively retain the rural population.Therefore,how to play the function of"reservoir" in small towns is particularly important.The development of small towns is the key to solve the problem of "three hundred million people" and promote the further advancement of new urbanization.It is an effective way to transform the rural population into the urban population by using the development of small towns to promote the development of rural areas.As an important political and economic center and population agglomeration area in China,Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei have a large gap in their internal development level,which is manifested by the advanced development of Beijing and Tianjin,and the serious lag of Hebei Province.By the end of 2016,the urbanization rate of Hebei was 53.31%,and nearly 35 million of the rural population in the province.The backwardness of rural areas has seriously restricted the economic development of Hebei Province,but also hindered the overall coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.To solve the problem of urbanization of agricultural population in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and improve the level of integrated development,we need to rely on small towns and attach importance to small towns.The premise of developing small towns is to rationally distribute township enterprises and promote industrial agglomeration and cluster.The development of industries can not be separated from the support of population.Only when the population reaches a reasonable scale can the industry obtain benefits.Therefore,the study of population size and industrial structure of small towns has practical significance for promoting the construction of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region,and further promoting the economy of rural areas and promoting the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.This paper makes a statistical analysis of the population size of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2007 to 2015.It is found that the total number of small towns in the region increased during the investigation period,including the total number of small towns in Beijing decreased,and the total number of small towns in Tianjin and Hebei increased.Small towns with a population of 10,000 to 50,000 accounted for more than 75%of the total size,and the proportion increased gradually during the investigation period.The population size of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is tested by the rank-scale rule.It is concluded that the distribution of population size structure of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is more uniform,showing a shuttle-shaped structure of "top,middle and wide,tail narrow".After estimating the nuclear density of population size,it is found that the peak value of the nuclear' density curve of population size of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is in the range of 25,000 to 30,000 people,representing the largest number of small towns with this population size.The spatial distribution of population density of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei shows a polarization pattern of high in Northwest and low in southeast.The population of small towns mainly distributes in the piedmont plain and the central plain.During the period of investigation,the population distribution of small towns tended to converge.The population mainly concentrated around the economically developed municipal districts,while the population of small towns around the Bohai Sea region flowed into the cities more.The areas where the population density of small towns is increasing rapidly are obviously distributed along the main traffic routes.The population growth rate of small towns along Beijing-Guangzhou,Beijing-Kowloon,Beijing-Shanghai and Beijing-Harbin railways is the fastest.The analysis of the allometric growth model of population and land in built-up areas shows that the population number is positively correlated with the land area in built-up areas,and the change speed of population density is faster than that of land development in built-up areas.The larger the area of small towns,the more concentrated the population is.Especially in the small towns around Tianjin,the population density is slightly crowded.From the classification of non-agricultural industrial structure,it can be concluded that in 2009-2015,over 60%of the total output of small towns in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region accounted for more than 35%,which is in the early stage or early stage of industrialization,and the level of industrial development is still very backward.The industrial development level of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is different,and there is a big gap between Hebei and Beijing and Tianjin.From the point of view of non-agricultural employment concentration,Beijing has a higher degree of concentration and advanced industrial development,Tianjin is in the middle,Hebei lags behind,and the overall level of non-agricultural employment concentration in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is not high.Through the analysis of the response of the population size of small town built-up areas to the non-agricultural industrial structure,it is concluded that nearly half of the population of small town built-up areas show negative response to the industrial structure,which indicates that the improvement of industrial structure plays a limited role in promoting the"stabilization" of the agricultural population.Based on the analysis of the interaction mechanism between population size and industrial structure in small towns,the empirical models of the impact of population size on industrial structure and industrial structure on population size in small towns are constructed respectively.The regression results show that the size and industrial structure of small towns affect each other and promote each other.In addition,the population size and industrial structure of small towns are affected by the diffusion effect and siphon effect of their county and prefecture-level cities.The improvement of county industrial development level promotes the industrial structure of small towns,and the improvement of county infrastructure investment siphons the population of small towns.The enlargement of the population scale of prefecture-level cities has a driving effect on the population agglomeration of small towns,and the improvement of the economic development level of prefecture-level cities has a siphon effect on the population of small towns.Based on the research results,this paper argues that the development of small towns in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei should pay attention to quality and cultivate leading industries relying on their own resource endowment advantages.Small towns with adjacent regions,similar nature and convergent industries should be encouraged to build industrial parks together to increase the scale of industrial agglomeration.We should increase investment in infrastructure in small towns,improve the living environment,and make the rural population truly live in small towns and become citizens in small towns.The formulation of policies for small towns should be targeted and focused,and efforts should be made to build a number of central small towns with a certain scale and development power to promote the development of rural areas.