An Analysis Of Factors Affecting Fertility Rate In Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu is an economically developed and populous province in eastern China, the ageing of population is 13 years ahead of the whole country, which means Jiangsu has entered the stage of accelerated aging population in 20 short years. It takes forty or fifty years to an aging population in developed countries in contrast, the condition of"No Fu first old"is prominent in Jiangsu, which will affect the development of the economic society deeply. Research on the deeper reasons for an aging population is crucial to solve it. Studies have shown that the rise of average life expectancy and the decrease of fertility rate were the main reasons for the aged tendency of population, and a probe into the causes of falling fertility rate is pivotal.Based on previous studies, this paper firstly expounds various factors affected on fertility rate, and then establishes the theoretical model, which provides sufficient theoretical support for empirical research together with appropriate indexes selection. Secondly, the paper does some descriptive statistical analysis about the current condition of population and its fertility rate in Jiangsu, summarizes the characteristic of childbearing age women, which are the realistic basis of the empirical research. On the theoretical and realistic basis, the paper constructs Structural Equation Model (SEM) and fits the model with the data of 52 counties in Jiangsu by Amos software, then analyzes the influence path and degree of the factors affecting fertility rate. Finally, the paper conducts prediction and comparison of Jiangsu's population size and structure in the future based on the 2000 census data of Jiangsu under two different fertility levels, puts forward relevant suggestions, and mentions deficiencies and questions that need further research at the same time.The main results concluded from the above research are: (1) Jiangsu has the largest population in Yangtze River Delta, but the population growth presents to be reduced-type. The proportion of women who have just arrived reproductive age is increasing, the overall educational level of childbearing age women is low. (2) The impact of family planning policy on fertility rate is declining over time. The spatial distribution has shown that the fertility rate reduces as economic and social development improves. (3) The socioeconomic factor has become the main reason for the decrease of fertility rate, moreover, its lagged effect is greater than current effect. The relationship between the socioeconomic development level and fertility rate has past the inflexion of the inverted U-shape. (4) Given an assumption of stable economic and social development, the elder population proportion of Jiangsu will outstrip the younger one in 2016 according to current fertility level, the dependency ratio of elder people over 64 will increasing year by year. Based on the conclusions, policy suggestions proposed are: Family planning policy should be partially increased in some low-fertility areas; The timing of adjustment should avoid boom population's child-bearing period; Predict the future fertility rate and aging population proportion under it according to the lagged influence degree of socioeconomic factors, fix the adjustment interval based on the acceptable grade of aging problem; Establish rural old-age pension system and improve the urban system, carry out commercial insurance under the government supervision, introduce private capital to the pension system gradually.