Research Of Inter-province Migration In Jilin Province

Population migration is a very complicated social phenomenon. The major factor in population migration is labor force, whose regional distribution and efficiency is an endogenous variable of economic development. Therefore, population migration is a concern of both demographers and economists. The interrelationship between population migration and economic development has become a focus of multi-disciplinary studies.Population migration is not only a result of regional economic development, but also an indicator of future developing trend in this region. After the founding of new China, planned economy had been gradually established in our country. Under such an economic system, a strict mode of planned population management was implemented throughout the whole country. The moving of population was affected by the dual economic policy which separated the cities and countryside. The household register system limited the population migration and the distribution of population was adjusted by the means of planning alone. Most population migration occurred in the form of planned migration. As a result, the regional distribution of population stayed in a relatively static state and human talents over-concentrated in certain departments or areas. Efficiency of human resource remained very low and people attached little importance to population migration. After reform and opening up to the outside world, our country pursued a guideline of"centering on economic development"and carried out reform in a market-oriented way. Therefore, population migration, especially migration of labor forces as a production factor becomes more and more active and the ratio of migrated population constantly increases. All of these lead to great public concern about population migration.Jilin province is one of the heavy industrial bases which were constructed emphatically in the early days after the founding of PRC. In the construction and development of the province, a large migrated population keeps the population growth rate of Jilin above national the average level. After the economic restructuring in the 80s, the demographic change of Jilin province has changed from total immigration to total emigration. Since the middle period of 90s, the emigration rate of Jilin province has sped up and more consistency has been reached between the population distribution and the regional economic distribution.Based on the previous study, the population migration data from the fourth and fifth population census of China and the spatial interactive models, this paper analyzed the influence posed by GDP, total population, the population employed in the third industry in every province in the periods of 1986-1990 and 1996-2000 as well as the distance between Jilin and other provinces on population migration of Jilin. It also analyzed the economic development condition of Jilin province according to the regression result of the spatial interactive models and proposed countermeasure advice for the development policies. Data in this paper are mainly cited from The Fifth Population Census of China, The Fourth Population Census of China, Jilin Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, the Historical data Compilation of provinces, autonomous districts and central-governed municipality in 1949-1989 as well as other data provided on the websites of National Bureau of Statistics of China and the provincial government of Jilin province. Based on the spatial interactive models, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the population migration of Jilin province. Through screening, the GDP, total population, the population employed in the third industry in every province as well as the distance between Jilin and other provinces were chosen as variables to analyze the factors affecting the population migration of Jilin province.Based on the model analysis, we reached the following conclusions: (1) The economic development level and economic scale of other regions have posed more and more influence on population migration of Jilin. (2) The influence posed by the total population of other regions on population migration of Jilin is also increasing. The regions with a larger population size are more attractive to migrated population. (3) The development of third industry in Jilin province has restricted the emigration to some extent, yet compared with other provinces, the third industry in Jilin province is developing at a relatively low speed. Therefore the immigration into Jilin province is also restricted. (4) The spatial distance varies in the reverse proportion to population migration of Jilin province. However, the spatial influence is less influential on emigrated population than on the immigrated population. In other words, the emigrated population from Jilin province prefers long-distance migration, while the immigrated population comes from a relatively nearer place.In closing, combined with the status quo of both economic development and population migration of Jilin province, this paper made an in-depth discussion about the conclusions reached through the model analysis. It also proposed relevant suggestions, namely, that favorable conditions should be created to bring the human capital into full play and that the institutional cost of population migration should be reduced and employment should be expanded.