The Unbalanced Analysis Between The Regional Higher Education And Economic Development In China

After the opening reform periods in our country, the education and economy have developed greatly. The relationship between education and economy is causal and they promote and restrict each other. The imbalance of economic development is a widespread and objective problem. The Economic foundation decides superstructure. Association between education and economy determines a strong mutual influence. The imbalance of the regional economic development leads to the imbalance of the higher educational development. However, maintaining a proper relationship between higher education and economic development is the short-cut to realize economic development. So it is valuable to study the unbalanced problem between regional higher education and economic development.Some scholars have just studied this problem by comparing the higher education and economic development among provinces. In this paper, we choose per 10,000 population numbers of undergraduates as the descriptive index of the higher education and per Capita GDP as the descriptive index of the economic development. Firstly, we select linear regression model to analyze the relationship between the higher education and economic development. We use the residual analysis to analyze the unbalanced status and the unbalanced trend between the higher education and economic development from 1990 to 2005 among the 27 provinces in our country, excluding Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. The so-called residual analysis is that by comparing the regression model residuals, we analyze the unbalanced status between the higher education and economic development among the provinces. The standard residuals is used to analyze the unbalanced trend and the standard error is used to analyze the whole unbalanced trend.By linear regression model coefficient, we find that the balanced relationship between the higher education and economic development is stable except in 1993. The abnormity in 1993 is due to the outlier. In order to depict the stability of the balanced relations and weaken the effect of the outliers, we select the fixed-effects model to analyze the balanced relations and use the above residual analysis to analyze the unbalanced problem. Futhermore, we discuss how the outliers affect the coefficient estimation of the linear regression model and fixed-effects model.The main results of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the residual analysis of linear regression model and fixed-effects model is consistent and the conclusions about the unbalanced status between the higher education and economic development are consistent with the literature. In our country the regional higher education and economic development exist unbalanced status. The representative provinces are Shanxi, Hubei, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Shandong. Shanxi and Hubei belong to the case that the development of higher education is faster than economic development; however, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Shandong belong to the contrary case, the development of higher education is slower than economic development; Secondly, from 1990 to 2005, in Shanxi, Zhejiang and Shandong, the unbalanced status show a degressive trend. In Shanxi province, duing to the effect of the outlier, the unbalanced degree is the largest in 1993. In Hubei province, the unbalanced status show an ascending trend. In Guangdong province, the unbalanced status fluctuates. In Fujian province the unbalanced status first ascend and then descend. The overall unbalanced status is also degressive and in 1993, duing to the effect of the outlier, the unbalanced degree is also the largest during the periods in our country; Thirdly, in the respect of coefficient estimation, the effect of the outlier to the fixed-effects model is less than the effect to the linear regression model.The advantages of this paper are as follows: we quantitatively study the unbalanced problem between regional higher education and economic development, from the balanced relations. And we consider the unbalanced degree and trend.