The Population Model In The City System Population Evolution Applied Research

Urban area is a spatial distributional system constituted by interweaving population, economy, science-technology, culture subsystem; it is a complex huge system and also a ever-evolving dynamic system. Of this huge system, the population subsystem is the most vigorous and active factor for the whole system evolution. In any urban area, population is almost the dominant factor for the evolution of its society and economy subsystems. So, the dynamic simulation and forecasting of total population, population structure and population distribution are of necessity. This thesis focuses on several main modeling techniques: composite modeling, spatial distribution structural modeling, population development equation modeling and equi-dimesional grey replacement dynamic forecasting modeling, with their applications in urban total population, population structure and population distribution model constructions. Upon models being constructed, several main population dynamic parameters in selected urban areas are simulated and analyzed. Applicability's of various modeling techniques are then discussedIn this thesis, necessity and compulsiveness for the study of urban area system is explained, following by an introduction of the state of the art researches in modeling urban population subsystem, and then expounding various leading modeling techniques and their applications. Population composite model is formulated based upon logistic model and regressive model, holding respective virtues of constituent models and achieving higher modeling precision. Guang Zhou total population forecasting, shown as an illustrative instance, suggests composite modeling is obvious preferable to classical simple singular modeling.Population spatial distribution modeling is apt to depict the dynamic evolution of employment population. Also exemplified by Guang Zhou urban area, employment population evolution is simulated, numerical relationship between population evolution and work opportunities is also establishedCurrently, Ageing is an involving and pending problem confronted by most developed countries. In China, due to more than 20 years till now rigorous one-family-one-child population policy, this problem is now much more complicated and involved confronting by some big urban areas and looming on more and more China cities. Inducted by partial differential population development equation, utilizing available Guang Zhou Municipal Statistics data, mortality function and migration function are firstly formulated. Then total urban population, elderly population and ageing index are calculated. By carefully further analysis, it is showed that the predicted figures and real figures are coincided with each other very well.For total population forecasting, there are many optional models, such as: Malthus model, logistic model, discrete model, damped model and grey model. Amongst all these options, grey system theory forecasting model is the most redounding when applied in complex system with multitudinous and involving factors. Based upon grey system theory and Guilin 1994-2003 population statistical data, a equi-dimesional grey replacement dynamic forecasting model is constructed, and then applied in population forecasting. All these results promise positive suggestions for conscientious municipal administration.