Is The Alliance Of Democratic Countries More Durable? Th

The practice of alliance plays an important role in the history of internationalrelations. China as early as the Warring States period, have the foreign policy ofassociating with the distant countries and attacking the near ones. Since the moderntimes, the practice of European’s alliances mainly embodies the policy of “balance ofpower”. Neither the18-19century England, nor the20th century the United Statesand the Soviet Union, the policy of alliance is crucial, big country through skilled useof alliance policies favorable to obtain their own regional or global security incomefor a particular age. In recent years, with the rise of China, some scholars havesuggested that China should abandon the "non-aligned" policy, which stirs mostcontroversial. However, regardless of whether China’s future alliance policy wouldmake adjustments, we first should have some basic theoretical knowledge andunderstanding about alliance theory.As a popular since the country’s foreign policy strategy, researches about alliancetheory have been a long time. Alliance theories include at least three components:coalition formation theory, the alliance continuing theoretical and rupture theory.Currently, Western scholars already have lot of research results on alliance formation,there are threats to equilibrium theory, on the balance of power, the balance ofinterests on the full range of checks and balances theory, security outsourcing theory,homogeneous countries on intimacy, diversionary alliance theory. However, for theAlliance and the Alliance continuing rupture theory lacks theoretical studies scholarsconcern.In recent years, scholars have gradually doing research from coalition formationtheory to the alliance continuing and alliance rupture theory. This is mainly based onthe notion of change, because that is not necessarily a coalition formed alliances andcoalitions rupture sustained reasons. Meanwhile, with the continuous developmentand improvement of international relations in the database, case study researchmethods shifted from large sample quantitative research. Scholars hope to make amore precise explanation.In recent years, Western scholars working on the duration of alliances havedeveloped the “democratic alliance durability theory”, which argues that alliancesformed between democratic states last longer than other types of alliances (alliancesbetween non-democratic states or alliances formed between democratic and nondemocratic states). This conclusion is based primarily on the observation thatcommon democratic values, culture and democratic institutions have the power tobind states. Western scholars universally rely on this empirical finding to demonstratethe “dependability of democratic alliances.” However, looking carefully at examplesof democratic alliances and considering the limitations of this theory, it is argued thatthere is not much difference between the ways that democratic and non-democraticstates implement alliances when it comes to the domestic costs of breaking an allianceagreement. Based on this observation, two converse hypotheses are explored to testthe democratic alliance durability theory:(1) that alliance formed by non-democraticstates are more durable; and (2) that alliances between democratic and non-democratic states are more durable. In testing these hypotheses, the article uses adataset of cases of bilateral military alliances from1815to1989and applies a Coxproportional hazard model. Controlling for power relations between members of analliance, cultural background, international structure, level of institutionalization of analliance, the purpose of an alliance, geographical position and other variables, it isfound that alliances formed between democratic and non-democratic states last longerthan other type of alliances. In other words, alliances between democratic andnon-democratic states are more durable.This conclusion has denied the western scholars view, pulling back the"democratic alliance enduring theory" believers from the argument for the superiorityof democratic countries to reality. For research alliance theory, the study of differentnational regimes should be put back on the same starting line. On the other hand, thisconclusion is also indirectly on the "Democracy Alliance reliable theory" questioned,because, in fact, permit test is based on a problem. At the same time, this conclusionfor the future of China’s alliance may have some practical significance and value.