Research On Chinese Real Estate Cycle

The experiences of real estate growth and development in our country indicate that periodic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of real estate growth. To analyze the cycle of real estate industry has a creative significance in theory. Under the statistic of growth rate of real estate development and investment, the growth rate of real estate development and investment has risen from 1997 to 2003, but in 2004, the ratio has declined. The phenomenon shows whether the flex point has experienced. As a result, to analyze the cycle of real estate industry has a more important practical significance.Based on the background of development history of Chinese real estate, this paper penetrates through the superficial analysis on real estate cycle theories and makes a deep study on the influence factors of Chinese real estate cycle development. The author points out that studies on the influence of inherent and external factors to Chinese real estate development by its categorized method can not discover the leading factor function in Chinese real estate cycle development, therefore put forward such a categorized method of "direct and indirect factors" , and based on which to study the influence of various factors to Chinese real estate cycle.By study the influence of direct and indirect factors to Chinese real estate cycle with its categorized method, the author deduced that directfactors (that is real estate supply and demand) is the leading factor that influence Chinese real estate cycle development, while indirect factors (this is policy factor, market factor and population factor) all exert its.influence on real estate supply and demand firstly, and then influence real estate cycle development. Consequently, to judge the fluctuation and development of Chinese real estate cycle, is mainly to study the influence to real estate cycle made by fluctuation of real estate supply and demand.Based on the through study on indirect factors (that is policy factor, market factor and population factor) that influenced on real estate cycle development during the period from 1997 to 2004, and quantize these factors as invest amount of real estate development, growth rate of real estate development and investment, loan amount of real estate development, urban per capita disposable income etc. index, quantize real estate supply and demand separately as the area of newly-started and commercial residential building sailing area, and take further study on the relevant relations among the policy factor, market factor, population factor and real estate supply and demand, as well as the vibration of real estate supply and demand resulted from these factors.The author further points out the influence of present macro economy situation to real estate supply and demand, thus judge synthetically and deduced that real estate supply will reduce gradually; real estate demand will keep high volume in a short term. According to basic principle of supply and demand economics and the influence to real estate cycle resulted from supply and demand changes, the author predict that the flex point of this cycle of real estate will appear soon.