Study Of The Relationship Between The Fluctuation Of China’s Real Estate Cycle And Economic Cycle

Since the reform and opening up, the real estate industry has been developingrapidly in our country, is to promote the growth of the national economy and theimprovement of people’s living is one of the basic industry. According to the data, theNational Bureau of statistics in2012, the national real estate development investmentof7.2trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of16.2%, for the pillars of the status of it, isan indisputable fact. From the beginning of the last century30’s, the intrinsic linkbetween the real estate cycle and economic cycle fluctuation appeared, that is the realestate cycle fluctuations in addition to its own factors, but also affected by the wholenational economy, which in turn will affect the entire national economy. As one of themain pillar industries in our country, the real estate industry and the national economyis a mutual promotion, mutual relationship. Therefore, the internal relationshipbetween real estate fluctuation rules and fluctuations in the economic cycle, so that itcan produce a virtuous interaction, will be conducive to real estate industry and theentire national economy healthy and sustainable development.Based on the real estate cycle and economic cycle theory, the interaction effectof China’s real estate cycle and economic cycle fluctuation is analyzed, and thenselect the commercial housing sales area growth rate as an indicator to reflect the realestate cycle, selecting the whole country GDP growth rate as reflecting the indicatorof the economic cycle, an empirical analysis of the relationship between the real estatecycle and economic cycle. At the same time, the economic factors are subdivided intoGDP, the national average sales price of commercial housing (p), urban residents percapita income distribution (sr) as well as the city population at the year-end (cs), usingthe method of co-integration test and Granger causality test to study the Graingercommercial housing sales area (sx) and a relationship between gdp, p, sr, cs. Theempirical results show, commercial housing sales area (sx) there is a long-runco-integration relationship between gdp, p, sr, cs, between real estate industry and thenational economy is a mutual influence of two-way relationship. Finally, combinedwith the main conclusions of the current real estate development research presentsituation and this, puts forward relevant policy suggestions.