China's Real Estate Cycle Wave Theory And Corresponding Countermeasures,

After reform and opening-up, real estate has entered an unprecedented developing period, but it is still facing such problems as scale enlargement, excessive increasing, acute industry fluctuation, and etc. Though many researchers pay great attention to the cycle fluctuation, the useful research achievement based on theory and practice that real estate cycle fluctuation is certain is little. At the same time, the research achievement that researches distinguish the cycle fluctuation of real estate in the course of acute industry fluctuation to explore the rule of cycle fluctuation is also rare. It would be a significant importance for sustainable development of real estate in China to explore the regularity characteristic of real estate economical operation and fluctuation mechanism, and meanwhile, pay attention to study the inherent mechanism of real estate growth and cycle fluctuation with a start from the particularity of social system of China and the stage of economic development, and to implement steady cycle fluctuation policy further.This research has finished six tasks and the correlative results are as follows:1 Regarding the Beijing ,shanghai, etc 35 large and middle city as target, an index system is established on the base of system variable and economy variable. The index system includes the factor of production, trade-off, investment, system, etc. By DI, the picture of china real estate cycle fluctuation is established. This picture reflects the course of real estate cycle and writer carves up four cycle of 1981-2006.By this picture, the real estate cycle fluctuation is reflecting well and truly.2 Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, the connection of real estate cycle and macro economy cycle is researched deeply. The result is that it is positive connection between the real estate cycle and macro economy. And the two characteristics are summarized. The sensitivity of investment fluctuation to macro policy is worse and intensity of reaction is large. The result is correct by actual practice.3 From the investment, supply and price, real estate bubble is researched and the character of bubble is analyzed. By the quantitative index of investment, empty rate and price, real estate bubble is existent. At the same time, the research results to government policy are published. For example, (1)investment trend of real estate shows that macro adjustment is effective; (2)bubble lies on real demand; (3)personal is the main consumer in dwelling house market; (4)empty rate influences china real estate market; (5)it is a good thing of price advancing, but the range should be moderate.4 Based on new position to china real estate on society, economy, law and technology, fearful influence of real estate cycle fluctuation is analyzed. The result shows that the fluctuation will product negative influence to finance risk, gamble, decay, waste of social resource and imparity.5 Factor of influencing real estate cycle fluctuation is analyzed. From the point of view of politics, economy and society, the influence is researched. Glebe policy and rate are more important than others. Policy fluctuation not only influences investment, but also consume. Current policy is helpful to restrain the bubble. Recently, demand is great and keeping rising; consumer cannot bring great influence to real estate industry in the future.6 Connotation of sustainable development to real estate is put forward. The connotation is to optimizing the benefit of glebe resource, restraining the exquisite cycle fluctuation, reducing the harm of real estate bubble to economy, stabling the margin rate, realizing society and people living harmonious, at last, real estate sustainable development is realized. At the same time, .correlative policy proposal is published from government and enterprise to accelerate the sustainable development of real estate.The main innovation points of this paper are as follows:1, Sustainable development target and connotation to china real estate is published. Based on new position, policy proposal is given from government and enterprise.2 An index system to measuring china real estate is established. Considering system and economy variable, the picture of china real estate cycle fluctuation is established by DI. The rule of china real estate cycle fluctuation is put forward. And the influence factor is analyzed; the countermeasure is given from politics, economy and society.3 . China real estate bubble question is researched synthetically. And the character of bubble is analyzed. Research results are given to government policy for restraining the influence of real estate bubble.