| With the development of the Chinese security market for more than ten years, the people have accepted the fashion of investment in securities gradually. The investors are full concerned that how to identify the risk of the listed companies. The special treatment is a sort of treatment manner in which China Securities Regulatory Commission treats with the poor exceptional financial condition of the listed companies, and it is more important to the investors' analysis and decision-making. It is necessary to predict the affair in order to keep away the investment risk.In this paper the theories of financial failure are summarized and all sorts of international predicting means are compared firstly. We have defined the special treated listed companies of the exceptional financial condition to the financial failure companies. In the next place, we have established the logistic model in order to predict whether the listed companies will be special treated and we will offer the efficient tool to the security investors and analyzers according to the quantitative analysis.We have the primary conclusions thereinafter according to the empirical study. Firstly, in the former two years of the special treated listed companies because of the exceptional financial condition, the special treated listed companies and the normal companies are differentiable in according to main business income-profit ratio, net asset-profit ratio, net profit per section, asset-liability ratio, net asset per section, overall asset increase ratio. We can establish the model in order to predict whether the listed companies will be special treated according to the index. Although the cash flux index hasn't been introduced to the model, it has manifested the excellent capability to differentiate the financial failure companies and the normal companies. Secondly, the established model has manifested the excellent predicting capability and it can be the efficient tool of predicting the financial failure. |
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