The Study On Predicting The Financial Risk Of Listed Companies Based On Data Mining

With the development of the Chinese security market for more than ten years,the people have accepted the fashion of investment in securities gradually. Theinventors are full concerned that how to identify the risk of the listed companies. Thespecial treatment is a sort of treatment manner in which China Securities RegulatoryCommission treats with the poor exceptional financial condition of the listedcompanies, and it is more important to the investors' analysis and decision-making. Itis necessary to predict the affair in order to keep away the investment risk.Making a study of listed companies of China (50 companies in financial crisisand 50 companies in normal), we set up a forecasting model of listed companies'financial crisis whose time span is 3 years in the dissertation. The thesis mainlydiscusses the influence of financial index to the model, contrasts the effects of theway using financial index, compares and contrasts the prognosticating effects of themodels which set up according to the following 2 kinds of ways: the logistic analysisand data mining, finds that using financial index can advance the degree of accuracyof the forecasting of financial crisis in the listed companies.on the side of time span,the method of data mining is better than others. The forecasting accuracy rate in datamining method can reach 84% 3 years before the listed companies are specialtreatment (ST). through the analysis, we know our country listed company's financialdata is effective, and strongerly forecastable, and able to forecast its future whetherthat will have the financial risk probability, in other words, our country listedcompany's financial contain the certain information content, the financial data usercan act according to the information from the property debt table, the profit table andthe cash flowindicator that will provide the information the enterprise whether futurewill be able to have the financial risk. We may see from the forecast precision, thecompany enters the financial risk nearer, forecast the precision is higher, This alsoexplain the process that the enterprise finance condition will be worse is gradually,the time to the financial risk near, financial norm differencewill be more obvious.