The Study On The Assessment Method For The Risk-based Reliabiity Of Road Network

Nowadays people pay more and more attention to the travel reliability except forthe fastness and safety. So, a lot researches are being done in this area. The researchnot only will give an assessment of road network reliability, which is needed by bothtraffic managers and travellers, but also will tell how to strengthen the road network toavoid the strike of extreme traffic occassions, such as big jams and some unexpecteddisasters.But the previous researches on road network reliability only implant thereliability notion in Engineering field, so there exist some mismatches, for example,the incompleteness of the theory system, the incompetence of the calculation method,too much indices to describe one problem and so on. Based on these problems, we doresearch on a new method to analyze the reliability of road network, which isRBR(Risk-based Reliability). RBR is the largest possible (with certain possibility)travel cost of travelers who travel through certain path at certain time. For that thecost is the risk travlers have to take when traveling, so it is named "risk-based". RBRgets its advantages such as: depicting road network reliability with one index, acomplete calculation system with both feasible calculation methods and proof-testmethods, a prosperous outlook of useful application and so on.At first, the paper discusses the meaning to do this research and the problems ofprevious researches. After the basic definition and analysis of RBR, three calculationmethods are proposed—— Historical Simulation Method, Analysis Method andMonte Carlo Simulation Method, which are verified by simulation experimentsindividually. Then the paper proposes two proof-test methods to make the calculationsystem complete. After that, some possible applications of RBR in the trafficmanagement of road network are discussed, where OD pair RBR and network RBRare proposed and RBR is used into the traffic guidance system, which testify thefeasibility of RBR applications with a simulation experiment and comparison withother methods. At last, conclusion is summarized and the prospects of the RBRresearch are proposed.