Research On The Requirement Forecasting And Developing Strategy Of Energy Of Our Country

The energy is that the mankind depends on for existence, important material base of national economic development, is the important strategic materials which concerns the lifelines of the national economy and national security, is the important insurance of our country economy that keeps fast, healthy, stable development and of setting up the harmonious , saving type society, it is a material base of realizing the strategic objective of our country, have a very important role in our country's modernization. Today of economic globalization, the contention of the energy of various countries is fiercer and fiercer, and though our country is with abundant resources, energy resources are more abundant, the fast development of the economy of our country rely on the consumption of the energy more and more, in addition, our country has a large population, the per capita energy is relatively scarce, Our country face the comparatively serious energy problem. Just in such a background, this text has carried on research to respects such as the energy strategy, demand of our country and consuming, etc, in order to offer the reliable basis of rational planning of our country energy.Thesis chapter one mainly explains the background, meaning of the thesis selected title, main content and research approach to study. The chapter two has analyzed our country energy present situation as well as the existence question, and separately has carried on the causal relation examination and the relevant examination to our country energy demand and the economic growth relations, the examination result indicated: Between our country energy demand and the national economy grow does not have the bidirectional causal relation, but has the remarkable relevance, its significance in the different economy development period is different. The chapter three introduces the energy demand related theory and the method, have established the energy demand forecast model, which Mainly includes the index smooth pre-measurement, pluralism linear return method, the energy expense elastic method of correlates three kinds of models. The chapter four has used Input-output method to carry on the simulation to the energy demand, the analogue result has indicated our country is allowed to control various departments the final product and the correlation energy product price alleviates our country to the energy demand pressure. According to the real diagnosis analysis, has carried on the department to the energy demand influence size the arrangement. The chapter five has proposed the energy developmental strategy, which our country may use, namely the energy and theeconomy coordinated development strategy, the energy market and the price regulation unify strategic, population control strategy, readjustment of the economic structure strategy, technology advancement strategy;The article finally has summarized this article research results, proposed to solve our country energy question policy to suggest.This article embarks from our country energy present situation, uses determines the nature of with the quota, the method which the present situation analysis and the forecast unifies, has pointed out our country energy development direction, has conducted the system research to our country energy demand, and has carried on the simulation to the energy demand, proposed our country energy strategy choice suggestion, has manifested the research integrity.