Research On China's FDI Early-Warning System

With the increasing effect of FDI on Chinese economic development, its menace has appeared gradually. At present, the debate about 'the Latin Americanization of China' in economic academia and business circles is drastic, especially the scale and quality of FDI that is involved in market monopoly, Industry Control, Technology Dependence and Financial Crisis so on so forth. Therefore, now finding out a method, which can synthetically appraise the impact of FDI on our economic security, is the most important thing.The paper applies early-warning system into the study on the impact of FDI in China, using qualitative and quantificational method, measures its safe degree in using FDI, forecastes in time and suggests the strategy in the management and control of FDI according to different conditions.First, according to the theory of economic early-warning and the trait of FDI, the author chooses method of early-warning system in using FDI, forecasting method, early warning index system and the method in fixing on base line.Secondly, the author establishes early-warning index system of FDI. According to the general principle, typical principle and attainable principle, the author has selected warning indexes and filtered them to exclude some related indexes. Then, we use Grey Relational Analysis and AHP to evaluate the indexes, constitute its base line and select method in determining warning level and analyzing its conditions.Thirdly, according to needing function, the author designs the procedure of early-warning system, including inputing stage, operating stage and outputting stage.Fourthly, we make the empirical study on the foreign economy of 2002-2006, to check up its validity and to evaluate the impact of FDI on China's economic safety;Finally, the author makes a conclusion and illuminates deficiency in this study:(1) When the early-warning system in using FDI is established, Stat. Early-warning method, GM (1,1) Model, the conjoint method of Grey Relational Analysis and AHP are probly to be use to early-worn, forecast and evaluate the indexes.(2) The procedure of early-warning system in using FDI contains, inputing stage, operating stage and outputting stage.(3) According to early-warning system of FDI, the paper analysises the condions of Chinese foreign economy in 2002-2006:The synthetical effect of FDI on Chinese economy will be positive: accelerate the Chinese economy to develop, has obvious effect of technology overflowing, increase the quantity of employment, improve the quality of employment;but has no more contributions to the regulation the structure of Industry, district and international trade;what is worse, it will deteriorate the distributing of district and the gap of rich-poor, and the foreign enterprises pay more attention to occupy and monopolise the share of Chinese market, but to decrease the exports and imports.The innovations of the paper:(1) The paper applies the early-warning system into the study on the effect of FDI on Chinese economy.(2) When evaluate the indexes, the paper uses the conjoint method of Grey Relational Analysis and AHP, which can remedy the lack of the both method and make the evaluation more effective.