Study Of Airline Flight Safety Monitoring And Early-warning Based On Grey Theory

Flight system is a core part of Airline,and its safety standard directly impacts the safety of airline and civil aviation.Airline flight system is a complex system which is affected by multiple factors,changes over time and sets hight safety requirement.If anything should go wrong,it may bring about some serious aviation accidents.So it's quite necessary to study the airline flight safety monitoring and early-warning.At present,there are a lot of researches on safety evaluation,prediction and early-warning,while the number of studies about airline safety monitoring and early-warning is rather small,and fewer studies monitor and alert the safety of airline flight system in a proper way.Consequently,the study of airline flight safety monitoring and early-warning within appling and improving the existing methods has important implications to enhance the level of flight safety management.This paper firstly reviews the current researches on airline flight safety monitoring and early-warning.On this basis,it makes a summary of the theoretical basis for the airline flight safety monitoring and early-warning,and pursues research in two aspects:on the one hand is monitoring the security status of airline flight system;on the other hand is predicting and early-warning the results of flight safety monitoring.Firstly,according to the characters of airline flight system,the monitoring index system of airline flight safety is established from four respects,which include crew,aircraft,environment and management.In view of the uncertainty of expert judgment,the weight values of indexes are determined by interval analytic hierarchy process(IAHP).And considering the grey of index imformation,the grey evaluation on real number is extended to interval grey number field,and the grey hierarchy evaluation method based on interval grey number and interval analytic hierarchy process(IGN and IAHP)is proposed.Meanwhile,through the example analysis,the validity and feasibility of the method are verified.Secondly,considering that the original data alignment is a stochastic oscillation sequence,the first-order and second-order smoothness operator are introduced to enhance the smoothness of original data alignment.In order to improve the prediction accuracy,particle swarm optimization(PSO)is used to optimize the interpolation coefficient and boundary value of GM(1,1).At last,the grey particle swarm optimization predicting model based on stochastic oscillation sequence is built,and the forecasted result is found.Based on these,the security development trend of airline flight system is analyzed and the early-warning of airline flight safety is fulfilled.