Study Of Urban Real Estate Early-warning System

The real estate industry of China is now experiencing rapid progress .The government exercised a series of polices to prevent its over-heat development, but the reaction of different city to the same polices is very different. Based on the considerations, the purose of this thesis is to establish an urban real estate early-warning system, in order to estimate the situation of urban real estate sector, insuring the health of the real estate industry.There are two parts that compose this thesis: the discussion on the methods of the real estate early-warning system ;the establishment and operation of Chengdu real estate early-warning system. The discussion on method contains :at the index setting step, the thesis mainly adopt the clustering analysis; at the index weight setting step, the thesis combine factor analysis with hierarchy analysis ;at the index early-warning critical point setting step, the thesis adopt systematic method; finally is the alarm forecast by single index and synthesized index. Based on the methods above, the thesis establishes the Chengdu real estate early-warning system, and operates the system by using the market information of Chengdu real estate , analyzes the situation of the Chengdu real estate sector in 2005, gives the alarm forecast and corresponding suggestions.The thesis gived its opinion by analyzing the steps and method of establish Chinese urban real estate early-warning system, established the Chengdu real estate early-warning and operated it, hoping to do something useful to the healthy development of China real estate market.