Human Capital & Economic Growth In Jiangxi: Theory And Demonstration

The theoretical bases of this dissertation are human capital theory and new growth theory and Lucas's (1988) endogenous growth model of human capital spillover lays the foundation for our econometric analysis in the dissertation. Subsequently, the dissertation has demonstratedly analyzed the performance of human capital in the process of economic growth of Jiangxi Province since 1978.In our research, we improved the estimating of physical capital stocks and we supplied a gap by estimating the time series of physical capital formation from 1952 to 1977 and the capital stocks from 1952 to 2002.Subsequently, by research, we found that the average share of human capital's contribution to economic growth of Jiangxi Province in the past 25 years is 32.1%. and the increase of human capital level has the acceleration effect on the upgrade of the industrial structure . In addition, the research shows that the spillover effect of human capital in China is lower than the average level in the world.At last, according to our econometric model's forecast, a conclusion was drawn that if economic growth of Jiangxi Province can achieve the aims in the future, the growth speed of human capital level must arrive at 1.66%, that is to say, in 2020, the average education time of the labors in Jiangxi must achieve 10.92 years.