The Development Trend And Countermeasures Of Handan's Road Transportation

The road hinge is an important component of traffic development strategies, whichare brought forward by the ministry of communications. It is also an important contentof planning the overall city's layout. In order to improve the actuality of Handan city'sroad stations and hinges construction, and make Handan construct a road network in alldirections and a well effective and fast road hinges network system that has completefunctions to adapt to the development of home and overseas conditions, thedevelopment trend and countermeasures of Handan's road transportation are studied inthis thesis.this paper starts with analyzing the actuality of Handan's economy developmentand transportation states . On the basis of analyzing the intending of social economy andtransportation, especially the trend of the development of road transportation, throughinvestigating researches, some relative data of the transportation are collected.Then the key index that influence the transportation are found out based on systemanalysis of the relations between Handan's social economy index and the transportation.Three models (Binary Regression, Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1)) that adapt toforecast road transportation development are selected. The paper apply these modelsrespectively to forecast Handan's road transportation in 2010 and 2015, then themixing forecast method is used to gain the final results so that the forecasting accuracyof passengers and freight's transportation is improved. According to the forecastedamounts of transportation, the suitable size of Handan's road stations and hinges to bebuilt is derived by use of qualitative and quantitative analysis. At last, the city's roadtransportation capacity and proportion in different directions of traffic flow are alsoforecasted. These results are useful basis data for the construction of road hinges for thedevelopment of Handan and can support the decision making for the relevant leaders.In the end, the countermeasure suggestions on how Handan's road hingesshould be planned are presented, according to the forecasting outcome and someguidelines, for example, passenger transportation should be high-speed, freight shouldchange into logistics, planning unitively, laying out reasonably, developing in phase,competence should be suited, the new and the old should be compatible and saving oninvestment and so on.This paper is positive for both the theories of the development trend of roadtransportation and construction of road hinges. It also has strongly practical directionalsignificance for reasonably planning the road hinges of Handan city.