The Research On Human Capital And Economic Growth In Dalian

Human capital is an endogenetic factor and engine of economy in western countries. These countries' development also shows the significance of human capital investment and accumulation in economic growth.Since 1978, great changes have taken place in Dalian. The speed of economic growth was great continuously. From the demonstration on economic growth in Dalian since 1978, human capital played an important role in the economic growth of Dalian. Human capital has a deep relationship to the economic growth and has a significantly external effect on non-human capital factors. From 1978 to 2004, the direct and indirect contributions of human capital to economy in Dalian are 5.00% and 3.45%, lower than those in China and some other provinces and cities. Physical capital is the main power to drive the economic growth. The low increase rate of human capital is the main reason.There are differences between the effects of human capital in different industries. Human capital has positive effect on the primary industry's development while its labor force is redundant. The direct and indirect contributions of human capital to growth in secondary industry are 5.00% and 3.45%. Human capital becomes more and more important factors to its development. The output elasticity of the tertiary industry is higher than that of the secondary industry. Because of the human capital's quick increase, the direct contribution of human capital to growth in tertiary industry is higher and about 5.27%. However, the indirect contribution is lower and about 3.27% for the high-level human capital is not suited to the industry.To sum up, the human capital level of Dalian was high but increased lowly in the past 27 years and the distribution of specialization human capital is not matched for the industries. And the innovation human capital is limited, so is the other high-level human capital. Based on the predetermination on the model of econometric analysis, the level of human capital should reach 10.31 years and the population of college or over will be more than 658.6 thousand in 2010. In 2020, the level of human capital should be reached 11.60 years and the population of college or over will be more than 1.01 million.