The Research On Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Public Companies Based On Estate-space Model

The financial crisis is a world question. Since the sixties, the researchers of a lot of countries of U.S.A. and Europe have already begun to carry on financial crisis early warning research. Domestic research has just started, and the great majority researches are that the qualitative analysis is heavy in quantitative analysis. Especially the forecastable models used widely recent years can only be applied in shot-term or static-state forecast. The supposed condition of the shot-term is that the coming phylogeny is identical with the old-timey phylogeny. The supposed condition accords with the shot-term forecast, but it does not accords with long-time forecast. But the Estate-space Model that is widely used in economical forecast can be appied in long-time forecast, for the established base of the Estate-space Model accords with Markov characteristic.The main purpose of studying in this paper is to establish one suit of effectual dynamic financial crisis warming model based on the Estate-space Model, which can be applied in long-term forecast, moreover can utilize the now available openly data, and forecast the companies that will turn up financial crisis in next year. For the companies that in face of financial crisis, The model can analyze the frondose effects which makes financial crisis more serious, and analyzes the contributiveness of these frondose effects on the financial crisis.This paper divides five parts altogether. The first part introduced the research background and the research significance of the financial crisis-warning model of listed company, and study the current situation both at home and abroad, and point out the research method of this paper. The second part is the theory of crisis-warning model. The third part establishes the crisis-warning model based on Estate-space Model. The fourth and the last parts used empirical research.