Statistical Analysis Of Energy Consumption Tendency In Our Country

The advance of human society relies on economic development, and economic development must again rely on the sustentation and guarantee of energy supply. Also, the latter in the 20th century, the achievement of the social advance and economic increase in China, which attracts worldwide attention, is closed to the strong sustentation of the energy industry. China is being in the crucial period, in which Chinese economics and society make great progress. It is very important to realize industrialization and to raise people's living standard with a low cost for the energy consumption.This paper takes energy consumption as the main line of analysis, and investigates the relation between energy consumption, economic increase and environmental problem, which is the content of three major aspects for sustainable energy development.At first, the paper introduces the theoretical problem of sustainable energy development, and according to the actual conditions analyzes the potential of sustainability of energy development. Then at the worldwide angle, we investigates the present situations of energy, economics and environment, and analyzes positively the relation between energy consumption and economic development, between energy consumption, economic increase and environmental problem, which is the important content of the major aspects of sustainable energy development. Finally, based on conclusions before, we investigate further into the tendency of the change of energy consumption under thinking the restriction of economic increase, and forecast the level of energy consumption by using the method called dynamic simulation.Based on the conclusion of analysis above, we make the following conclusions: (1) By using cointegration theory and Granger causal test, the study for the relation between energy consumption and economic increase shows that it is unidirectional causal relation from energy consumption to economic increase, and there is a long-term balance between them. (2) Taking CO2 emission as example, we establish the VAR model that describe a dynamic relation between economic increase, energy consumption and ecological environment. The analog result shows: If there is no artificial intervention, or not to implement the measures to reduce CO2 emission, and let it be, CO2 discharge capacity will maintain certain speed to increase continuously...