Landscape Pattern Analysis And Land Use Change Stimulation Of Eastern Chongming Island

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is an important content of geographical research on global change today. Analysis on dynamic about landscape spatial pattern is one of the key content of landscape ecology. Land use/land cover change affect ecological landscape functions and processes. Chongming Island is the world's largest alluvial island. Large-scale land reclamation and other human activities have severely affected the function of tidal flats natural ecosystems. In this paper we choose eastern Chongming Island as research region, using three satellite images in 1988, 1997 and 2002, combining with the technology of GIS and RS, adopting landscape spatial pattern index to analyze and research the spatial-temporal change of land use and landscape spatial pattern from 1988 to 2002. Using the land use map of year 2002 as based map, choosing thirteen kinds of inner and exterior driving forces, we apply the CLUE-s model to stimulate land use/land cover change in eastern Chongming Island, the modeling period is from 2002 to 2015. Modeling builds three kinds of demand scenarios. The first demand scenario is devised by the rate of land use/land cover change in eastern Chongming Island from 1997 to 2002. The second demand scenario is developed according to the overall plan about Chongming three Islands (increase the areas of towns and decrease the areas of rural settlements). The third demand scenario is decided under the background of ecological conservation (maintain the areas of Phragmites australis ponds where the biodiversity is high). The results are these:1 , In the temporal sequence, there is a mount of increase about the agricultural lands from 1988 to 1997 (from 24912 hm~2 in 1988 to 28479 hm~2 in 1997, the value of dynamic is 1.59%). But there is a little decrease about the agricultural lands from 1997 to 2002. From 1988 to 2002 the areas of towns, rural settlements, water body and aqua farms increased sustainable. While the areas of Phragmites australis ponds and tidal lands decreased sharply in the same period. As for the spatial change, from 1988 to 2002 the most obvious LUCC change happened in eastern and northern part in our research region. In the eastern part, there had been built two dams in the year of 1992 and 1998 respectively. Inside the dams, tidal lands natural ecosystem has been converted into Phragmites australis ponds and agricultural lands semi-artificial and artificial ecosystems. Agricultural lands distribute all over the region. Aqua farms...