| With the acceleration of global change and urbanization,various disasters including natural disasters, environmental disasters and human disasters emerged causing casualties and property losses in different countries and regions to varying degrees, while regional sustainable development obstacled by disasters at the same time. Disaster Risk research based on traditional single-hazard model gradual no longer adapt to the new situation of multi-hazards and global change. Integrated disaster risk management and disaster risk reduction conducted from the perspective of the integrated disaster system have become the focus of disaster research nowadays.Chongqing is the developing economic center located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the fourth central municipal city after Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin in China.Chongqing plays a prominent role in the "western development strategy". Due to complex hazard-formative environment and multi-hazards, disasters cause great economic losses in Chongqing every year.The occurrence of various disasters threats to people’s lives and property safety seriously,and hinder the sustainable development of the social economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to implement integrated disaster risk assessment as well as take measures on disaster prevention and mitigation.In this study, basic method and model of disaster risk assessment have been summarized based on domestic and foreign relative research. Public and government available statistics been used as data sources,38districts and counties as basic unit. On the basis of research in Chongqing disaster system, a preliminary disaster risk evaluation index system is established according to the principles of scientific, systematic, reliable and simple.This index system reflect elements of risk: hazard,vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity in each unit respectively; index weight empowered by "Synthetic Method" that combines AHP with Entropy Law. Conceptional models of comprehensive risk established as "R=H×E×S/C", fuzzy matter-element mathematical model has been adopted.Through comprehensive disaster risk fuzzy quantitative evaluation and sorting, conclusions have been drawn as follows: (1) Chongqing disaster system consists of three sections: hazard,hazard-formative environment and hazard affected bodies. All kinds of disasters are the result of the combined effects of the disaster system.Features of Chongqing disaster system concluded as follows:various hazard types, occur frequently;complex hazard formative environment, and obvious regional differences; hazard affected bodies uneven spatial distribution, gathering prominently; serious losses caused by disaster, and lossess fluctuated among years; close internal relationship and complex mechanism.(2) Average hazard risk level of Chongqing is moderately high.Hazard risk of "Northeast wing" is higher than "Southeast wing", while "one hour economic circle" is the lowest level of all. High risk rank districts and counties include Hechuan District, Fuling District, and Chengkou County in northeast,Wanzhou District, Fengjie County, Yunyang county located in Three Gorges Reservoir area.Higher hazard risk level counties and districts mainly distributed in downstream of Jialing River, include Beibei District and Yubei District;and along Wujiang River,include Wulong County, PengShui County and Youyang County.(3) Average vulnerability level of Chongqing is moderately low. Vulnerability of the "one-hour economic circle" is low and lower, but the main city is relatively high; high vulnerable Counties are concentrated in "northeast wing"of Chongqing; while average vulnerability level of counties in "Southeast wing" is low. High and higher vulnerable districts and counties include:Yuzhong District, Jiangbei District, Nan an District, Dadukou District, Pengshui County and Kaixian County.(4) Average exposure level of hazard affected bodies in Chongqing is low. Higher and high exposure counties are mainly concentrated in the "one-hour economic circle" region; average exposure level of Northeast Chongqing is lower, while Southeast Chongqing is the lowest.Spatial distribution of exposure in Chongqing in line with the situation of social-economic development of the region.(5) Average susceptibility of disaster damage level of Chongqing is low. Susceptibility of disaster damage of the "one-hour economic circle" was relatively low, whereas Yuzhong District, Jiangbei District, Qijiang District, Jiulongpo District and Nan an District, Dadukou District, Hechuan District is much higher. Southeastern counties and districts can be divided into two levels:higher and lower,while as whole northeastern area of Chongqing are slightly higher.High level susceptibility of disaster damage includes Yuzhong District, Jiangbei District, Qijiang District, as well as Kai County, Wanzhou District, Fengjie and Wushan County distributed in northeastern Chongqing.(6) Average disaster coping capacity level of Chongqing is relative high. Disaster coping capacity of counties and districts in "one-hour economic circle" is much higher than that of Northeastern and Southeastern Chongqing area.Average disaster coping capacity level of Chengkou County,Fengjie County, Yunyang County, Kai County,Wuxi County, Wushan County, and Pengshui,Youyang are relatively low, which counties are the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.(7) The average integrated disaster risk level of Chongqing is moderate, while spatial differences exist within the counties and districts. The integrated disaster risk level of "one-hour economic circle" area are mainly moderate and low;risk level of "northeast wing"counties and districts is much higher;while"southeast wing"is moderate.Yuzhong District, Fuling District,and Chengkou County,Kaixian County, Yunyang County and Fengjie County located in northeast Chongqing stands high integrated disaster risk, meanwhile they are the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation implement in the future.Finally, based on these studies, reasons for difference of disaster risk in counties and districts been analysed, countermeasures for regional comprehensive disaster risk been proposed.This Research aims at providing scientific and theoretic references for the integrated disaster risk prevention in Chongqing. |
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