The Sustainable Development Of Jinan City Based On Ecology

Ecological footprints theory is one of the most popular ways to evaluate the sustainable development. By comparing the ecological resource consumption with ecological resource supply, we can know whether the researched city is in the sustainable situation. But we can not compare the demand and the supply directly,because the adverse ecological resource is not comparable. So we transform the ecological resource into the indifferent ecological land from which the resource can be produced.The paper is on the basis of ecological footprints theory to evaluate the sustainable development of Jinan. First, I try to find the best model to calculate the ecological footprints of Jinan. So to reflect the local ecological footprints, I use the national hectare. Second,calculating the static ecological footprints,which is to calculate the ecological footprints demand and ecological footprints supply of Jinan in the year of2012. By comparing the demand and supply,we can find whether Jinan is in the deficit or surplus. So I can give a evaluation for the sustainable situation. Third, ecological footprints concludes carbon footprints account and biological footprints account. Then use the statistics software to regress the footprints account respectively. In this way, the part of GDP which influence the footprints will be obvious. Last,according to results of the regression,the prediction of ecological footprints in5years can be available,and I can give the sustainable development suggestion of Jinan.Conclusion:the ecological footprints demand per person in Jinan is far more than the ecological resource supply. So it is in deficit. The proportion of energy ecological footprints account (the carbon account) is more than half of the total ecological footprints. It is proportional to the industrial production and building industrial. And it is inverse proportional to the service. And there is no linear relationship between the carbon account and the population or agriculture. For the biological account,there is no linear relationship between the three part of the GDP and the account. But as a whole,the total ecological footprints is proportional to the industrial production and is inverse proportional to the service. The regression result is LnY=0.3381nX1 0.181nX2+15.74(Y is the total ecological footprints,X1is industrial production, X2is the service). So if I can know the industrial production and service in five years, I will know the ecological footprints in five years. The results indicate that the increase is little. But at the moment, the deficit is very serious. So it is also very meaningful to give the sustainable development suggestions. The suggestions:increasing the supply of farming land, limiting the high energy consuming industry, developing high-end manufacture industry. They can all decrease the ecological resource demand.what’s more, creating a favorable environment for the service is a good way to flourish the service. And the way can help the economy keep growing in the situation in which the second industry is limited.