Study On Ecological Security Of Jinan City Based On Emergy - Ecological Footprint Model

Jinan is the capital of Shandong province and it is famous for springs，so Jinan is also calledsprings city. Jinan has a long history, and its economy is developed. Jinan plays a leading role onthe surrounding citys in many respects, such as science and technology, politics and education.However, in recent years, there is a contradiction between the economic development and theecological environment. Ecological problems have begun increasingly prominent, so, all sorts ofproblems related to ecological safety should be pay attention to. Therefore, in this paper, thepresent situation of the ecological security in Jinan from2003to2012were calculated andanalysed, and the grey system model was used to predict and analysis per capita energyecological footprint of Jinan in the next decade, so as to provide certain theoretical basis forcoordinating all aspects in the future development of Jinan.This article established the energy-ecological footprint model first, selected calculation andevaluation indicators of ecological security, and then did the relevant calculation. The resultsindicated that the per capita energy ecological carrying capacity declined slightly from0.4657hm2/cap in2003to0.3248hm2/cap in2012and reduced0.1409hm2/cap in the ten years. Atthe same time, the per capita energy ecological footprint rose rapidly from6.7892hm2/cap in2003to8.8839hm2/cap in2012and increased2.0947hm2/cap in the ten years.The calculationof the energy ecological footprint involved six categories of land types, therefore, this researchalso calculated the proportion of the six kinds of land in total, and analyzed their changesbetween2003and2012respectively, in order to find out the focus of the ecological footprintgrowth. The per capita energy ecological carrying capacity was always smaller than the percapita energy ecological footprint from2003to2012, it meant that resources provided by naturalenvironment was always less than people need, so, Jinan characterized by ecological deficit, andthe deficit was grew. Ecological pressure index as the main evaluation index of this article wasalso growing. The results of ecological security assessment were that ecological securityevaluation rating has fallen from level3in2003and2004to level5in2011and2012.In the prediction of ecological security situation in Jinan in the next decade, this study used the grey model to predict the per capita energy ecological footprint，and used the average valueof the per capita energy ecological carrying capacity from2003to2013as the prediction, thencalculated relevant indicators and divided the warning level on the basis of the prediction. Theresults showed that the ecological pressure index would increase year by year and in the nextdecade, it would increase from24.7271to33.0970. The results of the ecological securityassessment and warning showed that if according to the trend of development, the ecologicalsecurity level in2013to2022would reach to level5and6, and the ecological security warninglevel would enter level3and4, ecological security status in Jinan would be worse and thewarning level would be the highest grade in2020.Due to population growth, urbanization, unreasonable use of resources and so on, ecologicalsecurity warning has already rang in Jinan, so suggestion from the following aspects arerecommended to maintain the ecological security of Jinan. Perfect laws and regulationsassociated with ecological protection, strengthen the law enforcement of relevant personnel, playthe powerful binding to the whole society of legal norms; Control the population growth in Jinan,raise public awareness of protecting environment, and arouse the enthusiasm of protectingecological environment; Optimize the industrial structure and promote clean production; Controlthe expanded speed of built-up areas to protect arable land and forest land resources, increase theproductivity of land, and improve the yield through technological innovation.