Driving Mechanism Research Of CO₂Emissions In China

In order to provide theoretical support for more efficient and scientific carbonreduction policies, this paper try to conduct comprehensive decomposition analysis of thecarbon emissions changes in China, from the national, regional and industrial levels.On the national level, this paper utilizes the LMDI method to decompose the changesof China’s carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity from1996to2010, from theperspectives of energy sources and industrial structure respectively. Furthermore, this paperintroduces the decoupling index to analyze the decoupling relationship between carbonemissions and economic growth. The results indicate that, on the one hand, economicgrowth appears as the main driver of carbon emissions increase, while the decrease ofenergy intensity and the cleaning of final energy consumption structure play significantroles in curbing carbon emissions; meanwhile, the secondary industry proved the principalsource of carbon emissions reduction among the three industries and has relatively higherpotential. On the other hand, most years during the study period see the relative decouplingeffect between carbon emissions and economic growth; there appear the absolutedecoupling effect in1997,2000and2001, which imply that the economy grows whilecarbon emissions decrease.On the regional level, this paper decomposes the changes of energy-related CO2emissions using the production-theoretical decomposition analysis approach, based on theprovincial data. The results indicate that, first, economic growth and energy consumptionare the two main drivers of CO2emissions increase during the sample period; particularlyin the northern coastal, northwest and central regions, where tremendous coal resources areconsumed, the driving effect of their energy consumption on CO2emissions appears fairlyevident. Second, the improvement of carbon abatement technology and the reduction inenergy intensity play significant roles in curbing carbon emissions. Third, energy usetechnical efficiency, energy use technology and carbon abatement technical efficiency haveonly slight influence on CO2emissions over all.On the industrial level, taking transportation industry as research object, this paperadopts the LMDI approach to investigate driving forces of carbon emissions changes, bydividing the industry into highway transport, waterway transport, railway transport and airtransport. The results indicate that the average GDP and highway transport have the most important promotion effect to carbon emissions increase, while the decrease of energyintensity of transportation, representing the energy efficient, and the decrease oftransportation intensity, representing transportation efficient, appear inhibiting effect tocarbon emissions.