Impact Of Transportation Structure On Transportation Carbon Emissions

Since the reform and opening up,the rapid development of the economy has created a miracle of China,but also produced a series of energy and environmental problems,carbon emission reduction work is particularly important.Transportation,as one of the main industries for energy consumption,is an area of focus for carbon reduction.The study of the influence factors of transportation carbon emission has become a hot issue,but the influence of transportation structure on carbon emission,and how to optimize transportation structure with low carbon emission as the goal,also need to be studied in depth.This paper attempts to explore the reasons for the promotion or suppression of carbon emissions in transportation structures in various regions,and how to optimize transportation structures based on carbon emission reduction targets.Based on the data of 30 provincial district panels in China from 2007 to 2016,this paper uses the "top-down" method to calculate the transportation carbon emissions,and the regional classification is based on the cluster analysis method of the single indicator panel data.Then,using LMDI(the index method of arithmetic)to construct the decomposition model of traffic carbon emission factors,selectthe regions with the highest per capita carbon emissions in six major categories to carry out regional heterogeneous empirical analysis,and find out two reasons why transportation structure has heterogeneous effect on traffic carbon emissions.The study found that:(1)the contribution rate of transportation structure changes to the growth of traffic carbon emissions is relatively high overall,the contribution rate of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong is higher than that of other regions,and the impact of transport structure on traffic carbon emissions is stronger;,but there are also some areas that show inhibition during specific periods of time,and(3)transport structures in less developed areas of water transport have an impact on transport emissions mainly through adjustments in the share of transport turnover between railways and highways.The transport structure of the developed area of water transport mainly affects the carbon emissionof of transportation by adjusting the proportion of water transportation and road sharing.On this basis,by establishing a linear planning model to obtain the global optimal solution,taking the guangdong province with strong influence and developed water transport as an example,the ideal transportation structural adjustment target of high transport utility and low carbon emission is obtained,and the study finds that compared with the transport ation structure in 2015,Guangdong Province reduces the proportion of road transport turnover,Significantly increase the proportion of water transport turnover,while appropriately increasing the proportion of rail transport turnover,will help to maximize the utility of transport ation structure under the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction.Finally,according to the conclusion of the study,the relevant policy suggestions to optimize the transport structure are put forward.The following innovations may exist in this paper:(1)expanding the heterogeneous analysis of the impact of transportation structures on transportation carbon emissions.Based on the LMDI decomposition model,two situations in which transportation structures affect carbon emissions are explored.(2)The optimization model of transportation structure is constructed,the ideal transportation structure with high transport utility and low carbon emission is analyzed,and the optimal transport turnover share ratio of each transport mode in Guangdong Province is proposed through empirical analysis.