Determine Method Of Unfavorable Weather Condition And It’s Application In Consequence Prediction In Atmospheric Environmental Risk Assessment

Both in China and abroad, there are many types of atmospheric risk diffusion models. Based on the review of these models, For the guide recommended Gauss model (RiskSystem) and ALOHA model, the model’s scope of application and the use of parameters are briefly discussed. To determine the most unfavorable weather condition and ground characteristics for accident risk modeling, this paper proposes the use of the orthogonal experimental method. On the basis of various factors evaluation, apply the orthogonal experiment method and the interactive experiment analysis with the selected representative parameters to determine the most unfavorable weather conditions, and ground characteristics.Although the concept of Environmental risk protection distance have been proposed, the determination of which is still lack of relevant evidence. In this paper, a method is proposed to determine the environmental risk protection distance based on short term acute contact air concentration standards(PAC-AEGLs).On the basis of the study above, in the view of the leakage accident risk for a liquid ammonia storage tank, the corresponding hazard area and environmental risk protection distance are determined by RiskSystem model forecasting with the known the most unfavorable weather condition and ground characteristics (wind speed:1.5m/s; stability:F; temperature:-5.7℃). Thus, a reference for the contingency measures and prevention of liquid ammonia leakage risk is provided(1.71km,5.27km and11.52km), determine the environmental risk protection distance is5.27km.