Real Estate Investment Risk Analysis And Evaluation In Taian High-tech Industrial Development Zone

With the rapid growth of the national economy in recent years,the real estate has already become the important pillar industry ,because its rapid development and overinvestment,some cities have the real estate bubble which must be bring the great risk to real estate investors. So towards to the theoretical and business circles,the study of real estate investment risk has become an important issue. Risk assessment is a very complicated system evaluation,this paper conforms to the real estate investment risk management,put forth effect on perfecting the real estate investment market and the risk evaluation system.According to analytical and problem solving thinking and the frame ,provides a more scientific approach,which can offer reference for policymakers,making the policy more reasonable and scientific.This paper first makes an exposition of the investment in real estate development situation at home and abroad ,and the research status of domestic real estate investment both at home and abroad were viewed,then analyzes the current real estate investment risk analysis, evaluation methods and technologies of the system,put forward the research targets and contents, looking for a scientific and reasonable risk analysis methods and evaluation methods.Secondly ,this paper treatises the develoment environment of the estate market and market reaseach theory and method sufficiently,including the estate investment market classification and development environment factors,the contents,methods, procedures of market reaseaches,market questionnaire design etc. Third, this paper discusses the theory of the estate investment risk analysis, carries out thespecific classification and preliminarily analyse for the real estate investment risk influencing factors ,constructs the real estate investment risk analysis and evaluation index system,expounds the methods of estate risk analysis and evaluation.among them ,we give top priority to the two real estate investment risk analysis methods,namely the the principle,calculation methods and steps of the analytic hierarchy process and the significance to estate investment risk analysis;the principle,the calculation which is membership grade of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, further more ,the significance to risk analysis.Fourth, take the estate market in Taian high and new technology industrial development zone as the object of study,this paper analyze the investment risk ,build the real estate market investment risk evaluation index system in regional level,use fuzzy mathematical thought and comprehensive evaluation method to establish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of estate investment risk ,comprehensively evaluate the high-tech region's investment risk .The result indicated that the market risk between low risk and lower risk and lower risk for low risk between definition.Fifth, the Olympic garden project as an example project on the risk analysis.Constructing the index system of the risk analysis and risk hierarchical hiberarchy model,adopting the Analytic hierarchy process to analyze the investment risk factors.The compositor of the risk factors as follows:Planning risk > macro adjustment and control policy risk = national economic development > management risk = financial risk>price of real estate industry risk =intratype competition = land supply >interest rates risk = inflation risk = remove risk> natural risk >political risk = urbanization risk = speculative risk = materials price risk,.The result show that this project' investment risk is lower risk.In brief ,this artical through examples verifies the hierarchical analysis method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation which have effectiveness and practicability when they uesd to construct models.Through the comparison and analysis,it is considered that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and hierarchical analysis method is feasible to evuluate estate investment program and apply to actual investment evaluation decision .The two method can make the experience, opinions, ideas qualitative indexes which have some fuzziness analysable and quantificational.,so the study can establish the program on scientific basis ,ensuring the conclusion's scientificalness . Because of this method can assessment circumstances with varies influencing factors involved and hand uncertainty,therefore it is suitable for sheme's analysis in term of the complicated large construction projects. Moreover ,it have the ability to choose the optimal scheme in the condition of multiple targets and many factors , so they can provide the basis for the real estate investment risk analysis and decision making .