Analysis Of Commercial Residential Buildings' Price Based On Grey Prediction Theory

With the rapid development of economy and prosperity of the market economy of China, the development of real estate industry is also booming, which has become an important factor that pull the growth of National Economy, that greatly contributed to realization of 8 percent growth of GDP for 2009. Real estate has become an important pillar industry of National economy, majority of which is commercial residential building that significantly impacts on people's necessary life. Real Estate is high-risk and high-yield industry, along with Chinese economy's development and housing system reform's depth, especially financial crisis's affecting. Affected by a lot of factors, the cost of Real Estate is growing gradually, however, disposable income of income of customers is not in pace with that or grows limitedly. So, housing price is focused by supply and demand sides.Housing price prediction has important reference value for all parties, but the result is always unsatisfactory, even contradicts with actual change. All the time, the prediction methods always give the trend of housing price, it is unknown for us which factor affects the price more seriously and which one less, and it is impossible to know how the prediction result varies when one of the factors changes, so it is necessary to make further study on the methods on the prediction of housing price. Taking Anyang city in Henan province for example, it is applied to analyze the trend of housing price of the city by the prediction method mentioned in this paper. This paper includes six chapters.The first chapter expounds background and significance of the paper and the research status home and abroad about the method on the prediction of housing price, and introduces briefly frame structure and writing ideas for this paper. In the second chapter, it describes the meaning and feature of real estate and housing prices to lay a good foundation of understanding housing price in depth. The third chapter briefly introduces the theory and factors affecting housing prices. Through the introduction, it is convenient to found the housing prices forecasts index system for future. Chapter four focuses on the contend of Grey Prediction Theory, part of which are GM (1,1) model and GM (1, N) model that are described in deep, that is the theoretical foundation of the paper. There is an example in the fifth chapter; the example is about the city of Anyang in Henan province combined with the Grey Prediction Theory to predict the housing price of the zone. Sequencely, the prediction result is analyzed, at the same time, the theoretical application is verified through the example. In the final chapter, it comes to the conclusion of the paper and evaluates the advantage of the method on housing price prediction, but it appoints to some aspects of further study on the method.