Risk Evaluation Research Of Oil And Gas Project Based On Unascertained Measurement

Drilling project is a vital procedure in the process of oil and gas exploration and development. It is a special operation project with high investment, high risk and high technology. And it is also a concealed underground project that complications and accidences tend to occur frequently. Aiming at a number of risks existed in oil and gas drilling project and complexity of risk measurement, analysis and evaluation research on drilling risk is of great significance.On the basis of analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of several evaluation methods used commonly by drilling risk evaluation, this paper applies unascertained mathematics theory and applies the unascertained measure evaluation method into risk evaluation of drilling enterprises, which put forward a new thought of comprehensive evaluation in drilling safety.Using the unascertained measure evaluation method to make comprehensive evaluation, the most critical is the establishment of evaluation index system. By analyzing the oil and gas drilling engineering system and its characteristics and the risk factors existed in every construction stages, this paper determines eight factors affecting drilling safety----natural conditions factors, engineering factors, drilling equipment factors, drilling auxiliary equipment factors, drilling aided engineering factors, safety management factors, economic factors, occupational health factors as the main evaluation unit of drilling project risk evaluation system, 42 specific indexes are got by further dividing the eight core factors and carry out qualitative description and quantitative treatment for grading standard of each index. On this basis, build oil and gas drilling project risk assessment model, and take drilling operation of Yanchang Oilfield single-well as an example, combining the unascertained measure theory and drilling daily safety data to make a comprehensive evaluation and get the risk level of this well, which verify the unascertained measure evaluation method being practical and efficient in oil and gas drilling projects. Finally, the drilling project risk mitigation measures and emergency response plans have been studied in order to get the aim that prevent and decrease the risk in drilling project.