Research On Industrial Carbon Footprint Based On System Dynamics

In the background of global response to climate change, as an economic development model with the features of low emission, low power consumption and low pollution, low-carbon economy is becoming a new international trend. Low-carbon economy promotes a less greenhouse gas emissions to achieve economic development goals. It is the bridge from the traditional development model, which is high-energy, high resource consumption and high emissions model, to sustainable development model.To Wuxi, the high population density, small environmental capacity, low resource self-sufficiency rate and other objective conditions exist. Along with economic globalization and integration, the resources and environmental pressure behind the rapid economic growth is increasingly obvious. Low-carbon city refers to a city that with low-carbon economy as its development models and direction, with low-carbon living as people's idea and behavioral characteristics, with low-carbon society as government official's construction samples and blueprint. Low-carbon city has become a common pursuit around the world, many international cities take building a low carbon city as a pride. Concern and pay attention to minimize the cost during the economic development process and the harmony of man and nature.Proceeding from this international situation, paper combines with Wuxi actuality, describes the status and trends of Wuxi industrial carbon footprint in detail. Paper covers the following aspects:Firstly, the paper analyzes the current situation in Wuxi energy situation and carbon emissions. The analysis shows that, the industrial energy consumption in 2008 reached 30.56 million tons of standard coal in Wuxi City, the industrial carbon emissions reached 82.02 million tons. Industrial sector carbon emissions shows the characteristics like faster growth in the total, elastic volatile, high carbon concentration and so on;Secondly, the paper begins with the view of Wuxi carbon footprint simulation system structure, builds the system dynamics model for the carbon emission factors and then make model test. The main factors in the model include energy structure factor, technological progress factor, the energy elasticity of demand, industrial structure factor and so on; Thirdly, after the model is validated, paper simulates low-carbon scenarios and ultralow-carbon scenarios. Simulation results show that in low-carbon scenario, industrial carbon emissions in 2020 will reach 121.746 million tons, in the low carbon scenario, the corresponding industrial carbon emissions will reach 118.736 million tons. Paper predicts the future economic development through the simulation model, defines the development model that suit for Wuxi economic development and environmental improvement--- ultralow-carbon model.At last, the paper combines the carbon footprint system simulation results and carbon footprint for the current situation in Wuxi City, combines all factors affect on carbon footprint, summers up the constraints leading to Wuxi carbon emissions. And starting from the various constraints makes a summary for low-carbon development path of Wuxi City from the policy system, industrial system, production technology, supply pattern, carbon sequestration and trade. Play a role in the promotion and information for the development of industrial sector, provides feasible suggestions for Wuxi low-carbon economy development.