Research On Project Risk Assessment For Green Automobiles Based On Risk Matrix

Recent years the rapid development of China automobile industry has heavily increased our country's dependence on oil, moreover it brings escalating environment problems. Green automobile can effectively reduce the oil consumption and lessen car emission, so developing green cars is the inevitable choice for further automobile industry, which is now as a national strategy in US, Japan and EU. With the global intense competition, only by establishing the green car developing strategy rationally can we have a great progress in economic. The key step for rational analysis is to evaluate green car project risks reasonably. By identifying risk possibility and evaluating the extent of damage caused by these risks, we can make clear the emphasis on risk management which is greatly vital for the success of green automobile project. So task of top priority is to establish a scientific project risk assessment system for green automobile.Most research about green cars are focused on the technology and policy, but less of them study on the risk assessment, thus this paper tires to establish an effective risk evaluation system for the green automobile to provide strongly decision support. This paper applies the risk matrix method, combining with other risk evaluation method to set up the risk assessment model. Firstly, this paper concludes risk assessment theories at home and abroad and analyzes the applibility of risk matrix. Secondly, identifies the green automobile risks and their characteristics, these risks include technical risk, financial risk, operating risk, market risk and policy risk, involving 15 detailed risk indicators. Thirdly, elaborates the risk assessment system based on the Risk Matrix, which can rank the risk priority to improve the accuracy and authenticity of risk evaluation results. Finally, applies this system on specific green cars investment project managed by Dongfeng Automobile Ltd., meanwhile analyzes the results to point out which risks should pay more attention and its future risk management strategy.This paper creatively applies the Risk Matrix and AHP methods on the Green Automobile project. Risk Matrix can rank the risk significance. This greatly overcomes the shortcoming of AHP when gives weight to risk indicators. By applying the Risk Matrix and AHP, people can not only grasp the comprehensive project risk situation clearly, but also identify which risks need to be managed urgently.This research shows that it's a little high risky project to develop the Green Automobile under current circumstance. In all of these risks, financial risk, technical risk and market risk are the most important ones, risk managers should take pertinency ploys to control or reduce them. It also shows that the Risk Matrix has superiority on ranking risk and evaluating risk comprehensively.