| Cultivated land, the essence of land resources and the most important means of agricultural production, is the basis of land ecological system stability and optimization, which is directly related to the safety of the food security,social stability, economic sustainable development and other aspects.In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and the accelerating rate in urbanization in China, arable land is accelerating to transform to non-agricultural land. Combined with the heavy discharge capacity of pollution in the process of agriculrual and industrial production, the quantity, quality and ecological securities of cultivated land are facing serious threat. As athe big agricultural province, Anhui shoulders the mission of national food security; At tha same time, it also facing the responsibility of raise the ecmonic level and the people’s livelihood. Under the drive of the modern economic development model, its arable land also facing the decreasing trend in the quantity and quality, and the destruction in ecology. Focused on the important special status and the present situation of arable land problems in Anhui province, the research on comprehensive evaluation for cultivated is necessary.Based on the summarize and draw lessons from the achievements about cultivated land resources security at home and abroad, Anhui province and it’s16 cities are selected to be the research areas. According to the principles of scientific, dominant and accessible, a comprehensive evaluation system including three levels as quantity, quality and ecological safety was established. Calculating the comprehensive values of cultivated land in Anhui province and it’s 16 cities’ s by using the Fuzzy Matter-element method, after determined the weights of each indicator based on the subjective and objective comprehensive empowerment, which constitute by Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and entropy weight method. Then, using the Obstacle Factor Diagnosis Model to check the obstacle factors of cultivated land security. At last, predict the status of the future cultivated land by Grey Prediction Model. The following are the main conclusions:(1) Quantity security:(1) The quantity security of cultivated land resources in Anhui province is safe in general from 2000 to 2013, but showes a trend of slow decline. In 2013, the spatial distribution of cultivated land resource security showes a pattern of zonal from south to north, with higher in the northeast and southwest, lower in the middle region. There is littler change of cultivated land resource security distribution pattern in recent 14 years. The number of cities in the level of very safe is more than the level of unsafety in the respect of quantity security of cultivated land resource. In recent 14 years, the quantity of cultivated land resource in Huangshan is always in the state of unsafety. On the contraty, Bengbu and Chuzhou is always in the level of very safe.(2) The main influential factor of cultivated land resource security in Anhui province has a change trend from the natural to the social attribute, and the disorder degree is increasing.(2) Quality security:(1) The quality security of cultivated land resource in Anhui province from 2000 to 2013 is on the rise in general, and ascensional range is larger. The spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land quality status(in the year of 2013) shows a tendency of higher in the middle and lower in the north and south. In recent 14 years, the distribution patterns keep stable, that is higher in th south and lower in the north. The cumulative number of cities that above the level of basical safety is far more than below it, that’s to say, the quality safety of the arable land in Anhui province is high at large. The characteristics of Fuyang and Bozhou in the northwest of Anhui, and Chizhou, Xuancheng, and Tongling in the south are special in the process of evolution.(2) The main obstacle factors of quality security of cultivated land resource in Anhui province have strong continuity and stability. Road density, standard coefficient of cultivated land, agricultural fiscal expenditure proportion of arable land and per capita GDP is the main obstacle factors. Among them, the frequency of standard coefficient of cultivated land is the highest, which illuminated the fact that the security of this indicators get the direct relationship with the quality security of cultivated land resource.(3) Ecological security:(1) In 14 years, the comprehensive value of cultivated land resource ecological securityin Anhui province ranges at a higher level from 0.7 to 0.9. Spatially, it has a complicated spatial distribution of lower in the middle and the south. The ecological security of the cultivated land is relatively optimistic for the situation of safety levels in two-thirds cities are all above the threshold. The ecological safeties of cultivated land resource in Hefei, Tongling and Huangshan are always below the state of basical safety. On the contraty, Xuancheng is always safe.(2) The major obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in Anhui province has an obviously stage characteristics, and the obstacle factor has the feature of strong stability, long time sustain in each stage. Among them, pesticides and agricultural films load of farmland ecological influence heavily.(4) Comprehensive security: The comprehensive security values of cultivated land resource in Anhui province during 2000 to 2013 float in a small difference between 0.2 to 0.5, and showed the increasing trend. The situation of cultivated land resource is relatively safe in general. In recent 14 years, the number of the cities whose safety values not above the threshold line is decreased, and present the spatial patterns from concentration to dispersion. It is opposite for the cities whose safety values above safety threshold. The cities whose safety degree belongs to very safe level is in the lead, and account for the total of 34.38%. Cities that pertain to basical safe is the least and distributed scattered. Among 16 cities, cultivated land comprehensive safety in Huangshan and Fuyang is the situated vulnerable. What’s verse in Chuzhou and Xuancheng.(2) The comprehensive safety values, as well as the quality safevalues, of cultivated land resources in Anhui province increased in recent 14 years. But the decreasing trend was also detected in quantity and ecological safety. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the protection of the cultivated land quantity and ecological maintenance in the future economic development.(5) In view of the current situation of cultivated land resources and the main problem in Anhui province, corresponding suggestions and measures for protecting farmland was put forward in order to stabilize cultivated land resource quantity, improve the cultivated land resource quality, and optimize the cultivated land resource ecological aspect. This research carried the beneficial discussion on the evaluation theory and method of cultivated land, and have a certain reference value for cultivated land resources protection in Anhui province. |
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