A Reckoning On The Ratio Of Rural-Urban Migration Contributing To Economic Growth In Jiangsu Province

Being built upon the rural-urban migration in Jiangsu province, the author aims at the existent shortage in the research to this problem, designs a new method for estimating the scale of rural-urban migration which is called chain ratio estimation on basis of income and cost in city and countryside, canvasses the change of the rural-urban migration from two aspects that are scale and structure, reckons the pearson coefficient between rural-urban migration and economic growth through Pearson theory and Granger cause theory, validates the relationship between them. On second thoughts, the author refers to Neoclassic Economic Growth Theory and the Growth Accounting theory, establishes the ratio model of rural-urban migration contributing to economic growth, adopts the Cobb-Douglas production function to expand the ratio model, analyses the ratio of rural-urban migration contributing to economic growth in Jiangsu province through time series analysis, makes systemic and meticulous investigation about rural-urban migration contributing to economic growth in Jiangsu province using economic and investment targets and their decomposable nature based on two aspects that are synchronized contribution and different period contribution through segmenting object to unit of profession, reveals the ratio of rural-urban migration contributing to economic growth in Jiangsu province and its developing trend. Finally, according to the conclusion of the model, the author brings forward corresponding methods in order to guide tendency and distribution of rural-urban migration and promote the harmonious development between rural-urban migration and economic growth in Jiangsu province.Through above-mentioned analysis, the author gets conclusion as follows. The development of rural-urban migration in Jiangsu province presents a flat shape of"U"which displays three stages and the structure has a characteristic of young, educated and centralized, futher more, present rural-urban migration in Jiangsu province is on the ascending phase of"U", that means the scale of migration will go on enlarging along with the economic growth. At the same time, the economic maintains continues rapid growth, especially the second and third industry. In view of the development of profession, the economic in Jiangsu province which is in the period of industry accelerated growth presents a picture of industry growth outshining all the others. Rural-urban migration has a close relationship with economic growth in Jiangsu province. It supplies economic growth with sufficient labor and added rich human resources by educated level of migrated population enhancing. In view of the development of industry, most of the migrated labor is distributed over the second industry, and others work in units of the third industry. Therefore, rural-urban migration has important contribution to the second and third industry especially the second one in Jiangsu province. In view of the development of profession, about 4.5 percent of the industrial GDP in Jiangsu province is due to rural-urban migrated labor and the ratio of contribution in every year presents an ascending curve. The different period contribution is also obvious. In architecture industry, rural-urban migration has clear synchronized and different period contribution. Rural-urban migration only has different period contribution in industry of wholesale and restaurant etc.