Research On Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Listed Manufacturing Companies

Due to the aggravating competition in external market and poor internal management, many listed companies in China are encountering financial crisis. In order to survive and develop in fierce competition, China's listed companies must establish an early early-warming system to deal with risks from all aspects to prevent the financial crisis. It is significant for China's listed manufacturing companies to improve risk management level that learning and mastering advanced methods and concepts on risk management which were accumulated and summarized by foreigners in the past few decades.The first chapter discussed the inspirations for establishing financial crisisearly-warming system in China from studies on this system abroad by researching in the current early-warming system at home and abroad. The second chapter discussed the meaning, characteristics and prediction models on financial crisis early-warming. The third chapter describes the financial crisis early-warming models, including the Z value model, Logistic model and the combined identification model of traditional method and artificial neural network. The fourth chapter focused on the establishment of financial Crisis early-warning model of Listed Manufacturing Companies, which was key point of this paper. The main four considerations of early-warning system in this paper were solvency, profitability, operational capacity, development capacity and cash flow. On basis of highlighting corporate solvency, this paper determined the integrated efficiency coefficient of listed manufacturing companies in terms of 11 financial ratios and the critical value andearly-warning limit which was determined by efficiency coefficient method, then judged the degree of financial crisis. Combined with the above early-warning results, a comprehensive evaluation was given on the risk profile of listed companies. Finally, on basis ofearly-warning results, this paper put forward corresponding countermeasures on the company's point of view for different listed manufacturing companies which have different degrees of financial crisis.