Pattern Optimization & Empirical Research Of Pension Development In Coordinating Of Urban & Rural

Along with the rapid development of society and economy, the pressure in payment of urban and rural old-age insurance fund, caused by ageing population and urbanization, became the focus in political and academic. Based on the development background of ageing population and urbanization, this paper had a full scale and comprehensive research on China's old-age insurance policy from the perspective of urban and rural. This research results indicate that:There are an large difference in urban and rural pension spending level (The difference of urban and rural pension expenditure of GDP was about 3.22 percentage points, and of fiscal spending was near 15.49 percentage points in 2008). Compare with OECD countries, China's urban and rural pension spending level were still relatively low (The percentage of China's pension spending of GDP was about 3.26%, and of fiscal expenditure was about 15.58% in 2008.However, in OECD countries, the average proportion in pension spending of GDP was about 7.2%, and of fiscal expenditure was about 16.69% in 2005). The Gross Replacement Rate (GRR) level of urban and rural old-age insurance system vary greatly (The GRR of authorities' & institutions'worker retirement system was about 70%-90%, and the GRR of enterprise worker basic old-age insurance system was about 58.5%, but the GRR of new rural old-age insurance system was only about 8.81%-22.01%). Meanwhile, the optimal contribution year is 35, not 40 or 45, from the perspective system gross replacement rate. According to the analysis on the development trend in future of China's urban & rural old-age insurance fund, the enterprise worker basic old-age insurance individual account fund that year balance will by 2035 deficit, about 126.6 billion yuan; The deficit scale of coordinating fund will reduce in 2023-2038, but it's enlarged gradually after 2038. Fiscal expenditure, which will be used in "export subsidies", will be up to 126.3 billion yuan in 2034, and which will be used in "import subsidies'", will be up to 8.55 billion yuan in 2021. Meanwhile, the accumulated fund of new rural social old-age insurance will appear inflection point in 2025, and will appear deficit in 2045, and the size will be up to 49.5 billion yuan. This paper indicated that old-age insurance system reform, which is based on parameter adjustment purely, play a limited role in relief fiscal paying pressure. However, accelerating the integration of different old-age insurance system, and reducing the gross replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system, and building supplementary old-age insurance system, and exploring old-age insurance fund investment channels actively is the most efficient methods.