Research On Hainan’s Basic Pension Insurance Fund Balance In The Perspective Of Aging Population

As a longevity province, Hainan had entered into the aging of population since2001, which had become a enormous challenge for its basic pension system and had caused the ongoing serious bear for the aged in Hainan. The key method to keeping the sustainable development of the basic pension system is that to keep the steady of the fund as well as to keep the balance of the payment of the pension. Keeping the balance of the payment of the pension,it is benefits for enhancing the payment ability of the fund,ensuring the living standard of the aged, relieving the social pressure to support the aged, replying better for the aging of population and so on. So the balance of the payment of the pension has become a hot spot that either the government or the common people all show the huge interest in it.For the importance of the balance of the pension-s payment, this paper establishes the variable index system by browsing a large number of study literature and asking the official staff about the circumstance of the basic pension system, and introduces the situation of the aging of population in Hainan. Then we establish a primary-composition-linear-regression model by using the statistical software called SPSS17.0to analyze the degree of the relation between the gap between income and expense of basic pension and each influence factor. According to the correlation degree between the data, we found that the number of people who join the endowment insurance, the cover rate of endowment insurance, the replace rate of the pension, the hand-in rate of the endowment insurance, the retire age, the degree of the aging of population, GDP, the yield rate of the pension as well as the real average wages all have obvious correlation to the balance of the payment of the pension. Then we use the regression model to forecast the following11years value of the gap between income and expense of basic pension. According to the data, we found that gap between income and expense of basic pension will become bigger in a slow speed, but the payment risk of the pension will become more and more serious. Moreover, we also found that the elongation of the retire age will has the most obvious influence to the accumulation of the basic pension. And the slowing growth speed of the GDP and the replace rate of the basic pension will enhance the pressure of the basic pension. Also,the degree of the aging of population will increase the financial pressure. Finally, we give some suggestion to keep the whole balance the gap between income and expense of basic pension.